原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：janwoo 转载请注明出处
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-324380-1-1.html
原文地址：http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2014/11/12/obama-in-china-taking-candy-from-a-baby/?partner=yahootix

 

Obama In China: Taking Candy From A Baby

奥巴马的中国行：手持棒棒糖的小观海



Chinese leader Xi Jinping knows somethingBarack Obama doesn’t: America is finished. The U.S. economy is an ocean linerholed below the waterline. In the stateroom, the band plays on – but, on thebridge, the outcome is clear.
With the arguable exception of the late-eraSoviet Union, America is sinking faster than any Great Power in history.
As a proportion of national output,America’s foreign debts are already larger than those of any Great Power sincethe egregiously corrupt Ottoman Empire  acentury ago. For those who need reminding, the Ottoman Empire, which hadflourished for more than six centuries, was then within a decade of finalcollapse.
Because every dollar of current-accountdeficit (the current account is the largest and most meaningful measure oftrade) represents an extra dollar that has to be funded from abroad, America’sforeign indebtedness is now accumulating at a rate of more than $1 billion aday.

有件中国领导人Xi清楚而巴拉克 奥巴马不知道的事：美国完蛋了。美国经济就像一艘水线下千疮百孔的邮轮，特等舱内依然鼓乐齐鸣，然而倘若置身舰桥，结局清晰可见。

除了上次充满争议的前苏联，美国是有史以来坠落速度最快的强权。

美国的外债占国民产出的比例已经超出了一个多世纪前极其腐败的土耳其奥斯曼帝国垮台以来的任何大国。需要提醒那些健忘者的是，奥斯曼帝国历经了6个多世纪的强盛，最终的崩溃只用了十来年。

因为经常账户赤字（经常账户是衡量贸易中最大及最有意义的依据）上的每一美元代表了必须在向外筹措额外的一美元偿付，美国的外债目前正在以每日超过10亿美元的速度累积着。

There is no way America can export itselfback to national solvency – U.S. industry has just become too hollowed out.Even apparently solid U.S. manufacturers like Boeing , Caterpillar , andCorning Glass have long since sourced many of their most advanced componentsand materials from Japan, Korea, Germany, and other manufacturing-focusednations. (For a closer look at Boeing, click here and here. Much of Boeing’smost valuable technology has long since been transferred to East Asia, notleast its avionics and its incomparable wing technology.)
In proceeding full steam ahead towardsnational bankruptcy, the United States is world history’s ultimate example ofthe triumph of ideology over commonsense. Beginning in the Eisenhower era,succeeding Washington administrations have bet the farm on ever-freer trade.Supposedly this would strengthen American economic leadership. To say theleast, the powers that be in Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei, as well as in Bonn,Frankfurt, and West Berlin, discreetly laughed at such epochal naïveté.

美国已经无法通过出口来偿还—美国的工业也已被掏空了。甚至那些表面上看着坚不可摧的美国制造商如波音、卡特皮勒、康宁玻璃，它们长久以来一直是向日本、韩国、德国及其他专注制造的国家外购大量的最先进的器件及材料。（以波音为例，要更深入了解的请点击链接。波音大量的最宝贵技术在很早以前就被转移到了东亚，尤其是其航空电子及机翼技术。）

美国在其迈向国家破产的全速疾奔中，是全世界有史以来无与伦比基于常识的空想的典范。始于艾森豪威尔年代，随后的美国政府对更自由的贸易孤注一掷，相信这会增加美国经济的领导力。至少可以这么说，东京、首尔、台北以至波恩、法兰克福、西柏林的领导人曾经暗自对这样划时代的幼稚发笑。

No nation has understood the stupidity ofAmerica’s trade policy more clearly than post-Mao China. On the one hand,American leaders have thrown the U.S. market wide open to Chinese exports. Onthe other, they have ignored Beijing’s in-your-face blocking of virtually alladvanced American exports to China. The United States has undoubtedly been by far the most serious victim of  Chinese protectionism.
As Chinese leaders know better than anyone,the ultimate issue is American corruption. Washington is actually far morecorrupt than Beijing. If you want to get something done in Washington, you dowhat you do in Jakarta: just slip some money to the right people. The point wasmade as far back as a generation ago by the prominent Japanese commentator andauthor Shintaro Ishihara.  From an EastAsian point of view, the United States is already, in its political dynamics, aThird World country.
Even South Korea, with just one-seventh ofAmerica’s population, is a bigger exporter to China than the United States. Ona per-capita basis, South Korea’s China exports are eight times larger thanAmerica’s. Korea’s exports moreover consist almost entirely of leading FirstWorld goods such as highly miniaturized electronic components, whereas the mainthings America sells to China are Third World-ish items such as iron ore, coal,and wheat.

没有哪个国家比毛时代以后的中国对美国愚蠢的贸易政策理解的更深刻。一边美国领导人让美国市场对中国大门洞开，而另一边中国却毫不留情的限制了几乎所有先进美国产品对中国的出口。美国毫无疑问是迄今中国贸易保护主义最严重的被加害者。

中国领导人比任何人都更清楚，美国最大的问题就是腐败。华盛顿的腐败程度实际上要远远超出北京。在华盛顿要办成什么事，你要做的与在雅加达的毫无二致：向对的人偷偷塞钱。日本著名的评论家及作家石原慎太郎在一代人以前就提出过这个观点。按照东亚人的观点，就政治活力而言美国已经是第三世界国家。

甚至只有美国七分之一人口的南韩，其对中国的出口都要比美国多。人均而言，南韩对中国的出口是美国对中国出口的八倍之多。另外韩国的出口主要是第一世界产品例如高度小型化的电子器件，而美国对中国的出口大部分是第三世界物品例如铁矿石、煤炭和小麦。

This is not to suggest that American brandsare absent from China. Actually they are everywhere. But virtually allAmerican-brand goods sold in China are made there. Corporate America has beenoffered a deal: if it wants to sell in China, it has to manufacture there. Theeffect on America’s job base is devastating. But this is not the half of it:China insists that U.S. corporations bring their most advanced productiontechnologies – knowhow that the American nation has taken generations to buildup. In an egregious sell-out of the American national interest, U.S.corporations have complied. Unlike their peers in places like Korea, Japan,Germany, and Taiwan, they have not had much choice: whereas other nations’governments stand behind their corporations and work hard to stem the leakageabroad of key production technologies, Washington lets the “wisdom” of themarket prevail.

 

As the New York Times has pointed out, acurrent example concerns Intel and Qualcomm, which have very similartechnologies that China is angling to acquire. From Beijing’s point of view, itis taking candy from a baby. The two American companies can be pitted againstone another in the certainty that one or other will soon cave. It is the groupversus the individual and in a well-organized groupist society, the groupalways prevails.

There is a one-way valve here. Keyproduction technologies leak out of the United States: they don’t leak in.Other nations have industrial policies to make sure that their most productive technologies stay at home. Bycontrast in a latter-day America, corporations have no national loyalty andthey  have every reason to transfer theirtechnologies abroad. That way they can aim to earn brownie points with foreigngovernments, not least the communist regime in Beijing. Their executives alsomax out their stock options.

这并不代表美国品牌缺席中国市场。实际上它们无处不在。只是几乎所有在中国销售的美国品牌产品都是中国制造的。美国公司被迫接受这个条件：如果你想在中国市场销售，你只能在中国制造。这还不是全部：中国坚持要求美国公司提供最先进的制造技术—美国花了几代人累积出来的知识。作为对美国国家利益的严重背叛，美国公司顺从了这些要求。不像其他地方例如韩国、日本、德国、台湾的同行，美国公司没有其他选择：其他地方的政府站在其公司背后，坚定的遏制关键制造技术的泄露，而华盛顿只是让市场做出“理性”选择。

正如纽约时代周刊所指出的那样，一个最近的例子就是英特尔和高通，它们都拥有中国想获取的技术。北京认为，这件事易如反掌。这两家美国公司被利用来互相争斗，最终肯定会有那么一家甚至两家会屈服。这是集团对散兵游勇，在一个高度组织化的社会，集团肯定是占有优势的一方。

这是个单向的游戏。关键制造技术流出美国，但是却没有流入。其他国家的产业政策确保其最有生产力的技术留在本国。与之相反的是。在当今美国，公司没有国家概念，总有理由将其技术转移到海外去。这样它们就可以讨好国外政府，尤其是北京的GCD政权。其首席执行官们也就可以刷爆其股票期权

Eamonn Fingleton is the author of In Praiseof Hard Industries: Why Manufacturing, Not the Information Economy, Is  the Key To Future Prosperity (Boston:Houghton Mifflin, 1999).

著者Eamonn Fingleton是Boston: Houghton Mifflin出版社1999年出版的《InPraise of Hard Industries: Why Manufacturing, Not the Information Economy, Is theKey To Future

Prosperity弘扬硬产业：为什么制造业而不是信息经济是未来财富的关键》一书作者。
 

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原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：janwoo 转载请注明出处
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-324380-1-1.html


mattk 10 hours ago

It is just plain cheaper for companies to move their production over tochina. If you are a profit-driven company where are you going to make yourgoods? In a country where labour unionized and you’re paying a worker $25/hourlow-skill factory work? Or china where the salaries are 1/4 that plus anyincentives the chinese throw in there.
Hardwood flooring in Canada is manufactured in China. The trees are logged inCanada, shipped over to China, processed and shipped back AND are still cheaperthan Canadian made flooring.
As a business person this just makes sense. Welcome to Capitalism and Publiccompanies.

公司将制造搬到中国只是因为更便宜。如果你想盈利你会到哪里制造？去一个遍地工会的、时薪25美金聘请低技能工人的国家？还是去一个薪资只有四分之一外加各种优惠政策的中国？加拿大销售的中国制造的硬木地板，原木在加拿大砍伐，运到中国、加工之后再运回加拿大，仍然比加拿大制造的硬木地板便宜。

作为商人这样做是明智。欢迎莅临资本主义及公开公司。

Eamonn Fingleton, Contributor 9 hours ago
A reply to Mattk:

Do you deny thatAmerican exports to China are subject to serious barriers and that Americancorporations, in marked contrast to those of nations with strong industrialpolicies, are subject to irresistible pressures to transfer their most advancedproduction technologies to China?

作者回复：你是在否认美国对中国的出口遭受到严重的贸易壁垒、相对那些有坚定产业政策的国家而言美国公司在遭受无法抗拒的压力向中国转让其最先进的生产技术吗？

matt b 9 hours ago
We are the onlynation in the world that freely trades. Our largest trading partners,Mexico/Brazil/China all either impose steep tariffs on goods imported to theircountries(35% Brazil) or all out block imports of certain goods such as China.They know they have to protect their own economy…why are we the only nation toostupid to realize you can’t survive unless you protect what you have? Oh waitwe aren’t that stupid.
Corporate America is the stupid one funding these decisions through campaignfinance. Corporate america has cut its own legs off here at home, and once theyhave no more to offer to China/Brazil etc, those countries will nationalizethose factories and cut Corporate America out of the loop. Corporate america isjust too dumb to see the writing on the wall because they are only looking atthe piles of cash on their desks!!

我们是世界上唯一一个实施自由贸易的国家。我们最大的贸易伙伴，墨西哥、巴西、中国要不就是对进口货物实施高额关税（巴西的35%），要不就是如中国那样干脆限制某类货物的进口。它们知道要保护自己的经济。。。为什么我们是唯一一个那么愚蠢的国家，不明白要生存下来就必须保护你所拥有的？我们没那么蠢吧。

美国的大公司才是那些通过政治献金左右决策的蠢货。美国的大公司把自己国内的手手脚脚都卸了下来，等到有一天它们对中国、巴西之流再无价值之时，这些国家就会把这些工厂都收归国有，让美国公司出局。美国公司被眼前之利蒙蔽了双眼，完全看不到凶兆！！

Eric P 9 hours ago
China is growingdaily from “foreign” technology. It has been a generation or more since Nixonfirst visit there (and it was a more agricultural society). The currentgeneration is still stagnant as far as producing new technologies, but are verygood at copying and adapting what we’ve developed, they do this because profitsare guaranteed. I fear the next generation will learn the skills to develop newtechnologies, once this occurs America will lose its place as leadingsuperpower. Currently, the world fears our technologies, but with all aresecrets being sold to highest bidders that fear will subside

中国受益于“外来”技术发展起来。在尼克松访华时那里还是主要是农业社会，迄今已经有一代人甚至更久了。目前的一代在科技创新上还是乏善可陈，但是在拷贝和消化我们技术方面非常出色，他们那样做可以确保有利可图。我担心他们的下一代将会掌握创新的秘诀，届时美国将会失去领导地位。目前，全世界都害怕我们的科技，如果所有的机密都卖给出价最高的买家，这种害怕将烟消云散。

Rick Montalban 9 hours ago
“The United Stateshas undoubtedly been by far the most serious victim of Chinese protectionism.”

- The main problemis the restrictions the US has put on high tech product sales to China. Therehave been direct and indirect consequences in trade because of theserestrictions. And instead of buying from the US, China just went to Europe tobuy and that’s where it has cost us dearly.

China’s wages arenow higher than Mexico, so if we can figure something out to sell to China, wewill prosper from this trade. The US might no longer be the biggest fish in thepond, but that’s not what this is about. It is about having a prosperous andfree society (and YES we are prosperous!)

文中所提的“美国毫无疑问是迄今中国贸易保护主义最严重的被加害者。”

-主要的问题是美国对出口中国的高科技产品附加的限制。这些限制对贸易有直接或间接的影响。因此中国转而向欧洲购买，这些让我们付出沉重的代价。

中国的薪资水平已经超越了墨西哥，因此如果能解决卖些什么给中国这个问题，我们将会从贸易中受益。美国可能不再是池子里最大的那条鱼，不过这个不重要，重要的是我们要有一个繁荣自由的社会（可以确定的是我们是富裕的！）

Tom Venander 9 hours ago
Excellent article,things I have said and thought for some time now myself! One big factor in our(America’s) demise it that bottom line… everything and everyone is for sale!There was a time when national interests/loyalty prevented such practices as outsourcing,and outside manufacturing. But those days are but a memory, it is all about the$$ and more $$’s that one can make regardless of loyalties or boundaries. Weare the Titanic now, and just like changing from Capt. Smith after hitting theberg to another captain is pointless. Political and corporate leaders over thepast 40 years have sealed out fate, the only worry I see is that like a woundedbear, we could be very dangerous to the rest of the world, because for Americawar makes $$!

好文，有些事情我自己已经说过和考虑过一段时间了！我们（美国）一个消逝的重大因素是底线。。。什么都可以交易！以前基于国家利益、国家忠诚而不会有外购、外包制造。这些都只留存在记忆里，现在只讲钱、更多的钱，忠诚与界限被无视。我们就是泰坦尼克号，在已经撞上冰山之后，换哪个船长都是无意义的。政界和商界领导人在过去的40多年中已经决定了我们的命运，我看到的唯一的担忧是，犹如一只受伤的熊，我们对世界而言极度危险，因为对美国而言战争一直在制造财富。

Eamonn Fingleton, Contributor 9 hours ago
A reply to RickMontalban:

You say theproblem is that the United States is restricting sales of technology to China.I am not aware that the United States has restricted sales of cars (producedeither in Detroit or in US-owned factories in Europe) to China. Yet sales ofsuch cars are almost entirely prohibited there.

作者回复Rick Montalban：

你说问题是美国限制对中国的技术销售。我不知道美国有限制过向中国销售汽车（在底特律或美国公司的欧洲工厂生产的）。然而这样的汽车销售在中国是完全被禁止的。

Shawn Yang 9 hours ago
One of barriers isfrom US government. US still has a sanction on China. That prohibits asignificant amount export to China. The list is so out of date. China caneither makes many of those items on list or easily import from other countries.US companies are loosing out.

其中的一个壁垒是来自美国政府。美国至今还在对中国实施禁运。这些禁运阻止了对中国的巨额出口。这个禁运清单已经是过时的了。中国可以制造清单上的大量产品或者可以轻易的从别的国家买到。只有美国公司受损。

Eamonn Fingleton, Contributor 9 hours ago
A reply to ShawnYang: Exports of cars are not prohibited technology. When will China importcars? Why does it insist that GM and Ford make cars on Chinese soil when thesecompanies can more efficiently supply the Chinese market from plants in Europeand elsewhere?

作者回复Shawn Yang：汽车不是受限制技术。中国何时会进口汽车？通用和福特可以在欧洲或者其他地方的工厂更加高效率的供应时，为何中国坚持它们必须在中国制造？

Shawn Yang 8 hours ago
Car import is notprohibited in China. A lot of fancy cars sold there are made in othercountries. GM also sell US made Cadillac in China. Yes, they have to pay importtax. You can argue that the tax is too high. Don’t forget, most import goodsfrom China are also taxed here.

汽车进口在中国是不受限制的。许多在中国销售的名车是他国制造的。通用也在中国销售美国制造的卡迪拉克。它们的确要交进口税，你也可以说税太高。别忘了，许多中国出口到美国的产品也要交税。

Jack Dere 8 hours ago
No problem withcorporations trying to make extra bucks by manufacturing products in China.However, to be fair, we should also mandate China produce those goods they areexporting to the US. Turnabout is fair game. We mandate Japanese cars exportedto the US markets to comprises a percentage of parts manufactured in the US.The same should be applied to Chinese imported goods. This is the only counterto massive trade deficit and keep manufacturing job growth in the US.Otherwise, slap a high tariff on their imports until they comply. The tariffshould include American brands made in China. It may force US companies toreconsider before moving manufacturing jobs overseas. I agrees with EamonnFingleton that there’s no way the US economy can ever rebound relying on fewhigh tech products and base on service industries. Without some form ofprotectionism, our economy will continues to tank and our debts continues torise.

想挣更多的钱而去中国生产没有问题。不过公平起见，我们也要强制中国在美国制造向美国供应的产品。反击是公平的。我们强制日本向美国出口的汽车必须包含一定比例的美国制造的零部件。同样的待遇中国进口的产品也必须享受。这是唯一可以解决巨额贸易赤字、保持制造业工作岗位增长的办法。不然的话就就对他们的进口产品实施高额关税直至他们妥协。征税还应包括在中国制造的美国品牌。这样或许可以迫使美国公司在将制造业搬到海外前再三考虑。我同意作者的观点，单靠有限的高科技产品和服务业，美国经济无法触底反弹。没有某种形式的保护主义措施，我们的经济还好持续低迷，我们的债务还会继续上升。

Peda Strianc 8 hours ago
Really? Can yousell natural gas to China, when China does import and want to clean up its air?Can you sell advanced jet fighters or other arms to China when their militarybudget doubled in the last 6-7 years and 0 dollars went to American Companies?German made diesel engines are on their submarines and gunships, that areactually made in Germany. Where are the Northrop Grumman thrusters, when Chinaimports Russian counterpart?

是吗？当中国在进口想要进口清洁能源时，能把天然气卖到中国吗？在中国的防务开支在过去的6-7年间翻了一倍多而流向美国公司是0美元的期间，能向中国出口先进战机及其他武器装备吗？德国制造的柴油机卖到了中国的潜艇和战舰上，这些都是实实在在的德国造。当中国进口俄制引擎的时候诺斯洛普·格鲁门公司在哪？

Eamonn Fingleton, Contributor 8 hours ago
A second reply toShawn Yang:

Of course, all theworld’s goods are available in China — at a price! For imported goods, theprice is typically two to three times the world market price. As anyone who hassat through the first term of an economics education knows, high prices tend tobe disproportionately effective in restraining demand.

作者再次回复Shawn Yang：

当然，全世界的产品都可以在中国买到—以什么价格！对于进口产品而言，其价格往往是世界市场价格的两至三倍。任何学过经济学基础知识的人都知道，高价可以有效的抑制需求。

Yi Ren 8 hours ago
How could youconvince “these companies can more efficiently supply the Chinese market fromplants in Europe and elsewhere”? Show us the data please.

A reply to Yi Renfrom Eamonn Fingleton:
The Japanese and Germans can supply the whole world from a single plant ontheir own soil. Why can’t Americans. The answer is that the Japanese andGermans have the organizational power to stand up to Chinese pressure fortechnology transfer. Americans under the current American system cannot.

你是如何认定“通用和福特可以在欧洲或者其他地方的工厂更加高效率的供应”？请给我们出示那些数据。

 

作者回复：日本人和德国人可以从其本土的单一工厂向全世界供应，为何美国人不可以？答案是日本与德国有组织力量支持抗击中国关于技术转让的压力。美国人知道现行的美国系统无法做到。