IEA Slightly Raises Oil-Demand Growth View But Cuts Supply Forecast


国际能源署上调了对今年石油需求增长的预期，原因是美国的石油需求前景有所改善，并且船用燃料使用量增加；与此同时，国际能源署还下调了全球石油供应预期，因欧佩克+的产量预期下降。



国际能源署(International Energy Agency, 简称IEA)上调了对今年石油需求增长的预期，原因是美国的石油需求前景有所改善，并且船用燃料使用量增加；与此同时，国际能源署还下调了全球石油供应预期，因欧佩克+ (OPEC+)的产量预期下降。 6park.com
The International Energy Agency lifted its forecast for oil-demand growth this year on an improved outlook in the U.S. and increased bunkering, while it cut estimates for global supply on lower output expectations from OPEC+. 6park.com
   
国际能源署表示，石油需求增长预期从之前的120万桶/日提高到现在的130万桶/日。总需求预计为1.032亿桶/日，而之前为1.03亿桶/日。 6park.com
Oil-demand growth is now seen at 1.3 million barrels a day from a previous forecast of 1.2 million barrels a day, the Paris-based organization said. Total demand is expected to average 103.2 million barrels a day from previously 103 million barrels a day. 6park.com
    6park.com
之所以做出预期调整，是因为美国石化行业对乙烷的需求激增，同时胡塞武装对红海航运的袭击导致贸易流动受阻，从而增加了船用燃料的使用。 6park.com
The revision was attributed to surging ethane demand in the U.S. for the petrochemical sector and increased bunker fuel use due to trade flow disruptions caused by Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping. 6park.com
    
不过，国际能源署确认，需求增长预计将较去年230万桶/日的增幅大幅放缓。 6park.com
Still, the IEA confirmed demand growth is expected to decelerate significantly from last year’s growth of 2.3 million barrels a day. 6park.com
   
“增长放缓意味着，石油消费在经历了数年来疫后反弹带来的波动之后，将回归历史趋势，”国际能源署周四表示。“更为疲软的经济前景进一步抑制了石油的使用，效率的提高和电动汽车销量的激增也造成同样的影响。” 6park.com
“The slowdown in growth means that oil consumption reverts towards its historical trend after several years of volatility from the post-pandemic rebound,” it said on Thursday. “A weaker economic outlook further tempers oil use, as do efficiency improvements and surging electric vehicle sales.” 6park.com
    
国际能源署的预期仍然远低于石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称：欧佩克)的预期，欧佩克本周重申，预计今年全球石油需求增长220万桶/日，明年增长180万桶/日。 6park.com
The IEA’s projection remains substantially lower than OPEC’s, as the group of oil-producing countries reiterated this week that it sees global oil-demand growth of 2.2 million barrels a day this year and 1.8 million barrels a day the next. 6park.com
    
国际能源署还表示，在欧佩克+产量预期下调92万桶/日后，全球供应增长预期从之前的1.038亿桶/日下调至1.029亿桶/日。 6park.com
Meanwhile, the global supply-growth forecast was cut to an average of 102.9 million barrels a day from 103.8 million barrels a day previously, the agency said, after OPEC+ output expectations were lowered by 920,000 barrels a day. 6park.com
   
国际能源署表示：“我们对今年供需平衡的预期从过剩转为轻微短缺。”该机构此前曾表示，如果欧佩克+从今年第二季度开始解除减产协议，预计将出现供应过剩，但该产油国组织本月早些时候决定将自愿性质的减产延长至6月份。 6park.com
“Our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit,” the IEA said. The agency previously said it expected a surplus assuming OPEC+ would start unwinding cuts from the second quarter of the year, but the group of oil-producing countries earlier this month decided to extend its voluntary curbs until June. 6park.com
   
由于天气相关的限制因素和欧佩克+减产，第一季度全球石油产量料将比2023年第四季度减少87万桶/日。从第二季度开始，非欧佩克国家的生产将占据主导地位。 6park.com
In the first quarter, global oil output is projected to fall by 870,000 barrels a day compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, due to weather-related constraints and OPEC+ output cuts. Non-OPEC production is set to dominate from the second quarter onward. 6park.com
   
“美国将连续第四年引领全球供应增长，”国际能源署表示。“另一方面，如果沙特继续承担欧佩克+的大部分减产，可能连续第二年成为世界上减产最多的国家。” 6park.com
“The United States is set to lead the world’s supply growth for a fourth year running,” the IEA said. “Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, could post the world’s largest decline for a second straight year if it continues to shoulder the bulk of the OPEC+ reduction.” 6park.com
   
随着美国和加拿大的运营从北极封冻的影响中部分恢复正常，2月份非欧佩克+国家的产量较前月反弹了27万桶/日。根据国际能源署的数据，预计今年非欧佩克+的供应量将增加160万桶/日，相比之下2023年增长240万桶/日。 6park.com
Non-OPEC+ production rebounded by 270,000 barrels a day in February compared with the previous month, as operations in the U.S. and Canada partially recovered from an Arctic freeze. According to the IEA, non-OPEC+ supply is expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels a day this year compared with 2.4 million barrels a day in 2023. 6park.com
   
与此同时，俄罗斯2月份原油出口量下降了14万桶/日，降至760万桶/日，商业收入较前月下降了1%，降至157亿美元。 6park.com
Meanwhile, Russian crude exports fell by 140,000 barrels a day in February to 7.6 million barrels a day, with commercial revenue down 1% compared with the previous month to $15.7 billion. 6park.com
    
国际能源署公布最新报告之前，原油期货受需求健康的迹象提振上涨，此前能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)公布，美国一周库存大幅减少，乌克兰加强了对俄罗斯能源基础设施的攻击，破坏一些主要炼油厂，加剧了市场对供应受到干扰的担忧。 6park.com
The IEA’s latest report came after crude futures rose on signs of healthy demand after the Energy Information Administration reported a large weekly draw in U.S. inventories and Ukraine intensified attacks against Russia’s energy infrastructure, damaging some major refineries and raising fears around supply disruptions. 6park.com
    
最近几周，油价一直在窄幅区间内波动，市场正在努力消化供需方面相互矛盾的信号。欧佩克+延长减产和中东地缘政治风险继续支撑油价，但对中国需求和美国降息路径的担忧挥之不去，限制了油价涨幅。 6park.com
Oil prices have been trading in a narrow range in recent weeks as the market grapples with conflicting signals on supply and demand. OPEC+ extension of output cuts and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to underpin prices, but concerns over Chinese demand and the path of U.S. interest-rate cuts linger, capping price gains. 6park.com
   
国际基准布伦特原油目前的交易价格约为每桶84美元，而美国石油基准西得州中质油期货的价格约为每桶80美元。 6park.com
Brent crude, the international benchmark, currently trades around $84 a barrel, while WTI, the U.S. oil gauge, is around $80 a barrel.