Putin Puts Clash With West at Center of Presidential Election


这位俄罗斯领导人几乎肯定会胜选，但克里姆林宫希望以高投票率来稳固他未来六年的执政地位。


普京若能连任总统，将有望成为自斯大林以来俄罗斯在位时间最长的领导人。

本周末的俄罗斯总统大选前夕，该国电视屏幕上播放的视频反映出结果不太可能出人意料。“谁将确保发展？”视频中问道。“谁能保证稳定？谁能让举国上下团结一致？你们对谁有信心？” 6park.com
The video splashing across Russian television screens in the run-up to this weekend’s presidential election didn’t leave much room for surprises. “Who will ensure development?” it asked. “Who guarantees stability? Who unites? And, in whom do you have confidence?” 6park.com
    
“只有他！”解说者这样宣布，与此同时，高光片段展示了普京(Vladimir Putin)在办公室工作、被爱戴他的民众簇拥，以及走过红毯与亚洲领导人、阿拉伯领导人会面的场景。 6park.com
“Only in him!” the narrator declared, as a highlight reel showed Vladimir Putin at work in his office, being exalted by adoring crowds and walking across red carpets to meetings with Asian and Arab leaders. 6park.com
    
普京正寻求获得另一个为期六年的俄罗斯总统任期，如果胜选，他有可能成为自斯大林(Joseph Stalin)以来该国在位时间最长的领导人，投票于周五开启之际，他基本做好了万全的准备。潜在挑战者已被禁止参选，批评者已入狱或逃亡。据俄罗斯有关部门称，他最强有力的反对者纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)在一个北极流放营生病后去世；被判处总计30年有期徒刑的纳瓦尔尼当时在该流放营服刑。 6park.com
As voting begins Friday, Putin has left little to chance in his bid to secure another six-year term as Russia’s president, and with it the chance to become its longest-reigning leader since Joseph Stalin. Potential challengers have been barred from the ballot, critics have been jailed or have fled. His most potent opponent, Alexei Navalny, is dead, after falling ill, Russian authorities said, in the Arctic penal colony where he was serving a sentence totaling 30 years. 6park.com
    
救济家中有人因在乌克兰作战而丧生的家庭之举，帮助提振了这位俄罗斯领导人的民望，起到同样效果的还有相对有活力的经济，以及斥资数以十亿美元计消除贫困、重建俄罗斯老化基础设施的新提案。 6park.com
Handouts for families who lost relatives fighting in Ukraine have won support for the Russian leader, as have a relatively buoyant economy and new proposals to spend billions of dollars to eradicate poverty and rebuild Russia’s aging infrastructure. 6park.com
    
投票前的信息宣传小心地把普京塑造成唯一一个能够让这个国家团结一致，能够拯救俄罗斯、使其免受西方敌人伤害的人物。 6park.com
The messaging ahead of the vote, which runs until Sunday, was careful to project Putin as the only figure who can keep the country united and save Russia from its foes in the West.  6park.com
   
“他一直在非常小心地确保没有其他候选人能提出未来愿景，”在总部位于华盛顿的欧洲政策分析中心(Center for European Policy Analysis)担任民主韧性主管的Samuel Greene说。“普京发出的讯息基本上是，这个国家的未来系于他一身，无论是什么样的未来。” 6park.com
“He’s been very careful to make sure there’s nobody else on the ballot projecting a vision for the future,” said Samuel Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for European Policy Analysis. “The message from Putin essentially is that whatever future this country has runs through him.” 6park.com
    
作为一名自我提名总统选举候选人，普京的胜选几乎是板上钉钉，他把俄罗斯绑定在他与西方不断加深的对抗中，这种对抗涉及乌克兰战争和他眼中俄罗斯应有的国际地位。但这并不是说此番投票无关紧要。分析人士称，克里姆林宫急切地想要呈现出民主的表象，想要利用高投票率使普京的权威合法化并得到加强。 6park.com
The Russian leader, who nominated himself to run, is all but guaranteed to win, binding the country to his deepening confrontation with the West over the war in Ukraine and what Putin sees as Russia’s rightful place in the world. But that isn’t to say the vote doesn’t matter. Analysts say the Kremlin is eager to present a semblance of democracy and use a high turnout to legitimize, and strengthen, Putin’s authority.  6park.com
    
“克里姆林宫感兴趣的首先是选票的绝对数量，”英国智库查英国皇家国际事务研究所(Chatham House)的顾问研究员Nikolai Petrov在一封电子邮件中说。“投票率和对普京的投票都应该会超过2018年，这将表明公民在战争时期支持他们的领导人。” 俄罗斯上届总统选举的投票率为67.5%。“州长们也有兴趣报告高数字，以显示他们的忠诚和效率。”Petrov表示。 6park.com
“The Kremlin is interested, first of all, in the absolute number of votes,” said Nikolai Petrov, a consulting fellow at British think tank Chatham House in an email. “Both turnout and voting for Putin should exceed 2018 indicating that citizens support their leader at a time of war.” Turnout in the last presidential vote was 67.5%. “Governors as well are interested in reporting high figures to demonstrate their loyalty and efficiency,” he said. 6park.com
   
为了让此次投票更像一次真正的选举，选票上列有反对党候选人，不过他们都经过了严格审查。这三位候选人都是经过批准的议会反对党的成员，这些党派很少违背克里姆林宫的意愿。选举委员会称，其发现两名反对乌克兰战争的俄罗斯政治家Boris Nadezhdin和Yekaterina Duntsova的文件有误，因此已阻止这两人参加此次选举。 6park.com
To make the vote resemble an actual election, there are opposition candidates on the ballot, though they were carefully vetted. All three are members of sanctioned parliamentary opposition parties that seldom go against the Kremlin’s wishes. No wild cards have been permitted—two local politicians who opposed the war in Ukraine, Boris Nadezhdin and Yekaterina Duntsova, were blocked after the electoral commission said it found errors in their paperwork.


选举委员会的一名成员在投票站准备选票。

“过去，他们会让一些至少能貌似有点竞争力的人成为候选人，以显示他们有实力击败这些候选人，”Greene说。“他们这次不会玩这种游戏了。”Greene还在伦敦国王学院(King's College London)担任俄罗斯政治学教授。 6park.com
“In the past, they would let somebody on the ballot who might be able to at least plausibly make a go of it to show that they have the strength to see them off,” said Greene, who is also a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London. “They’re not playing that game this time around.” 6park.com
   
俄罗斯政府的反对者说，投票站、数字投票和选举委员会都由政府控制，这意味着投票结果基本上是板上钉钉的事。 6park.com
That polling stations, digital voting and the election commission are all controlled by the regime means that the outcome of the vote is essentially a done deal, government opponents said. 6park.com
   
流亡海外的俄罗斯商人、反对派活动家Mikhail Khodorkovsky周三在一次媒体吹风会上说，选举委员会“将根据克里姆林宫已经下达的指示捏造数字。” 6park.com
The election commission “will cook up figures in accordance with instructions that have already been issued by the Kremlin,” exiled Russian businessman and opposition activist Mikhail Khodorkovsky told a media briefing on Wednesday. 6park.com
    
曾是一名政治犯的Khodorkovsky说，包括纳瓦尔尼的遗孀尤利娅·纳瓦尔纳亚(Yulia Navalnaya)在内的俄罗斯政治反对派已经联合起来，呼吁选民在3月17日中午涌入投票站，并呼吁那些足够勇敢的人穿上蓝色和白色的衣服——这两种颜色被用来象征反对俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵。Khodorkovsky说，这样做的目的是为了表明普京的反对者“并没有被边缘化，我们有很多人”。 6park.com
Khodorkovsky, a former political prisoner, said the country’s political opposition, including Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, have joined forces in calling for voters to flood polling stations at noon on March 17 and, for those brave enough, to wear blue and white—colors that have been used to symbolize opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The idea is to show that Putin’s opponents “are not marginalized, that there are lots of us,” Khodorkovsky said. 6park.com
    
周四，莫斯科检察官办公室表示，同一时间聚集到投票站将被视为一种可以法办的刑事犯罪，因为这“会妨碍公民自由行使投票权”。 6park.com
On Thursday, the Moscow Prosecutor’s Office said simultaneous arrival at polling stations is considered to be a punishable criminal offense, because it “can prevent citizens from freely exercising their voting rights.” 6park.com
   
总统发言人佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)上周驳斥了来自海外的批评，他表示：“我们的民主制度是最好的。”克里姆林宫没有回应就该选举结果已被确定的指控置评的请求。 6park.com
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov last week dismissed criticism from overseas, saying, “Our democracy is the best.” The Kremlin didn’t respond to a request for comment on the allegations that the election results have already been fixed. 


X平台上一则视频的这张截图显示的是纳瓦尔尼的遗孀尤利娅·纳瓦尔纳亚。

与此同时，普京在周四的一次电视讲话中呼吁俄罗斯人履行公民义务，将选票投给自己选择的候选人。 6park.com
Meanwhile, in a televised address on Thursday, Putin appealed to Russians to exercise their civic duty and cast their votes for the candidate of their choice. 6park.com
   
“我相信，你们了解我国现在正经历一个多么困难的时期，我们在几乎所有领域都面临着多么艰巨的挑战，”普京说。“我们仍然需要团结和自信。” 6park.com
“I am convinced that you understand what a difficult period our country is going through now, what difficult challenges we face in almost all areas,” Putin said. “We continue to need to be united and self-confident.” 6park.com
    
该选举不仅将在俄罗斯全国举行，还将在俄罗斯2022年占领的乌克兰东部地区举行，尽管这些地区并不完全受俄罗斯控制。乌克兰东部城镇阿夫迪耶夫卡甚至已经设立了一个投票站。此前，俄罗斯经过数月的艰苦战斗于今年2月占领了该城镇。 6park.com
The election won’t only be held across Russia but also in the territories of eastern Ukraine that Moscow seized in 2022, though none are fully under Russian control. A polling precinct has even been established in the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, which Russia captured in February following months of grinding combat. 6park.com
   
普京跳过了任何正式的竞选活动，如电视辩论，转而通过他的常规总统日程来宣传他的信息，包括与青年组织会面，与政府官员一起制定发展计划。 6park.com
Putin has skipped any formal campaigning, such as TV debates, instead pushing his message through his regular presidential schedule, including meetings with youth groups and working out development programs with government officials. 6park.com
    
他可能不需要这些竞选活动。自称独立的民调机构列瓦达中心(Levada Center)上个月的调查显示，约86%的俄罗斯人支持普京在担任总统期间所开展的行动，但有分析人士称，许多人除了对普京歌功颂德之外，不敢发表任何言论。 6park.com
He possibly doesn’t need to. The Levada Center, a polling group that bills itself as independent, found last month that some 86% of Russians approve of Putin’s activities as president, though analysts say many people are afraid to voice anything other than a glowing endorsement of the Russian leader. 6park.com
   
当普京表现出挑战美国的姿态时似乎是例外情况。支持乌克兰已成为华盛顿的一个党派化问题，而普京在国内没有遇到针对乌克兰战争的强烈反对，除了一些希望把亲人从前线接回家的妻子和母亲的零星抗议。克里姆林宫观察人士说，这让普京更加有恃无恐，敢嘲笑和挑衅西方。 6park.com
The exception appears to be when Putin presents himself as challenging the U.S. While support for Ukraine has become a partisan issue in Washington, Putin doesn’t face any serious domestic opposition to the war aside from sporadic protests from wives and mothers hoping to bring their men home from the front. This has emboldened him and allowed him to mock and provoke the West, Kremlin watchers said. 6park.com
    
今年1月，他首次以总统身份访问了远东偏远地区楚科奇，该地区与阿拉斯加隔白令海峡相望。他还突访了加里宁格勒，这是俄罗斯的一块飞地，夹在波兰和立陶宛之间。这两个国家都曾是俄罗斯帝国的一部分，但如今都是北大西洋公约组织(North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 简称：北约)成员国。 6park.com
In January, he made his first-ever presidential visit to the remote Far East region of Chukotka, which shares a maritime border with Alaska, across the Bering Strait. He also made a surprise trip to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania—both former parts of the Russian Empire, but today members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.


普京跳过了任何正式的竞选活动，如电视辩论，转而通过他的常规总统日程来宣传他的信息。

2月，普京乘坐一架改进型图-160M核战略轰炸机进行了飞行，军事航空专家称这是军事航空史上最大的超音速飞机。几天后，他在俄罗斯联邦议会的开幕致辞中夸耀俄罗斯的核能力，并警告说如果乌克兰的盟友开始在战争中发挥更大作用，将会爆发核冲突。周三，普京再次提到了核战争的可能性，尽管这种可能性不大。 6park.com
In February, he took a flight on a modernized Tu-160M nuclear-capable strategic bomber, which military aviation experts said is the largest supersonic aircraft in the history of military aviation. A few days later, he used the opening remarks to the country’s Federal Assembly to boast about Russia’s nuclear capability and warn of a nuclear conflict if Ukraine’s allies begin to play a larger part in the war. On Wednesday, Putin again broached the possibility of nuclear war, unlikely though it may be. 6park.com
   
“我们随时准备使用武器，包括任何武器，” 他在接受国家电视台采访时说。“如果这攸关俄罗斯的国家存亡，攸关我们的主权和独立遭到破坏。” 6park.com
“We are ready to use weapons, including any weapons,” he said in an interview on state television. “If we are talking about the existence of the Russian state, about damaging our sovereignty and independence.” 6park.com
    
现在这似乎是普京的长期战略：与西方对抗，维护他所说的俄罗斯传统正教价值观。Greene说：“与西方进行大规模的地缘政治对抗是俄罗斯力量的全部体现。” 6park.com
This now appears to be Putin’s long-term approach—taking on the West and upholding what he says are Russia’s traditional Orthodox values. “Large-scale geopolitical confrontation with the West is now what Russian power is all about,” Greene said. 6park.com
   
“说来也奇怪，他需要西方配合他演下去，”Greene说。“他需要西方表现得具有威胁性，需要西方对俄罗斯的一切持怀疑态度，需要西方不仅排斥他，而且看似排斥普通俄罗斯人。” 6park.com
“What he needs from the West, oddly enough, is to play along,” he said. “He needs the West to be threatening. He needs the West to be skeptical of everything Russian. He needs the West to not only reject him but to look like it’s rejecting ordinary Russians.”