Japan Finally Gets a Raise


日本工人即将领到高得多的薪水。这可能会使日本央行更容易决定是否放弃超低利率政策，最快可能在下周做出决定。


日本一些大公司已经同意给员工进行数十年来幅度最大的一次加薪。

日本工人即将领到高得多的薪水。这可能会使日本央行更容易决定是否放弃超低利率政策，最快可能在下周做出决定。 6park.com
Japanese workers are about to receive much bigger paychecks. That could make the Bank of Japan’s decision on whether to ditch its ultralow interest rate policy—which could come as soon as next week—easier. 6park.com
    
在工人们要求提高工资以应对通货膨胀之际，日本一些大公司已经同意给员工进行数十年来幅度最大的一次加薪。每年春季，日本的工会都会与企业就工资问题进行谈判，这一过程被称为春斗。去年春斗的平均加薪幅度为3.6%，已经远远高于往年。 6park.com
Some of Japan’s biggest companies have agreed to give their employees their largest pay rise in decades, as workers demand higher wages to combat inflation. Every spring, labor unions in Japan negotiate with companies on wages in a process called the Shunto. The average pay rise last year from the Shunto was 3.6%, already much higher than previous years.



根据日本劳动组合总联合会(Japanese Trade Union Confederation)的数据，今年工会要求加薪5%以上，而且很有可能实现。 6park.com
This year, the unions are asking for a pay rise of more than 5% and they may well get it, according to figures from the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, also known as Rengo.  6park.com
   
丰田(Toyota)和日产(Nissan)等许多大公司都已经接受了工会的要求，而日本制铁(Nippon Steel)等一些公司甚至更进一步。人口老龄化导致劳动力短缺，而通货膨胀则促使员工提出更高的薪资要求。2023年日本通胀率达到2.6%，以日本的标准来看是很高的。 6park.com
Many of the largest companies like Toyota and Nissan have accepted what their unions asked for and some, such as Nippon Steel, have even gone further. An aging population has contributed to labor shortages while inflation—2.6% in 2023, high by Japan’s standard—has pushed employees to ask for more. 6park.com
    
春斗的第一轮结果将于本周五出炉，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)估计平均工资增幅可能为5.2%。该行认为，将于夏季宣布的最后一轮结果将为4.8%左右。最终数字通常较低，因为该数据将包括属于一些小型工会的雇员。加薪还包括根据资历的定期涨薪。虽然春斗涉及的是工会工人，但其结果能很好地显示出整体薪资趋势。（译者注：春斗的第一轮结果出炉，日本大型企业今年平均涨薪5.28%。） 6park.com
The first round results of the Shunto will come out this Friday and Morgan Stanley estimates average wage increases could be 5.2%. The bank thinks the final round result—which will be announced in the summer—will be around 4.8%. That final figure is usually lower because it includes employees covered by some smaller unions. The pay raise also includes regular hikes depending on seniority. While the Shunto is for unionized workers, the results are a good indication of the overall trend for wages. 6park.com
   
西方国家可能会担心，工资-物价螺旋式上升会导致危险的、长时间不退的高通胀。但对日本这个在过去几十年的大部分时间里都深陷通缩的国家来说，强劲的工资增长值得庆贺：这也可能预示着更稳定的消费增长。 6park.com
Western countries might worry that a wage-price spiral could result in dangerously entrenched and elevated inflation. But for Japan, a country that has been mired in deflation for much of the past several decades, strong wage growth is to be celebrated: It could point to more steady consumption growth, too. 6park.com
   
稳健的就业市场也将给予日本央行更多空间考虑退出长期实行的负利率制度。与其他主要央行不同，日本一直没有加息，因为担心这会使日本重新陷入通缩。现在，日本央行可能对很快加息更有把握，最快可能在下周一和周二的会议上加息。 6park.com
The robust job market will also give the Bank of Japan more room to contemplate an exit from its longstanding negative interest rate regime. Japan has held back from raising rates, unlike other major central banks, because of worries that it could snap the country back into deflation. Now the BOJ may be more comfortable raising rates soon, perhaps as soon as at next week’s meeting on Monday and Tuesday. 6park.com
   
市场一直在期待加息。今年迄今为止，日本一年期国债收益率已上升约0.15个百分点，达到0.19%。在过去两周里，日圆兑美元升值了约2%，原因是人们预期将加息，尤其是对美国将降息的预期也在增强。 6park.com
The market has been expecting a rate hike. Yields on Japan’s one-year government bonds have risen by around 0.15 percentage points to 0.19% so far this year. The Japanese yen appreciated about 2% in the past two weeks against the dollar on hopes of higher rates—especially with expectations of rate cuts in the U.S. also building. 6park.com
   
日圆是过去几年全球表现最差的货币之一。但强劲的劳动力市场意味着今年的情况可能大不相同。 6park.com
The Japanese yen was one of the worst-performing currencies in the world over the past few years. But a strong labor market means this year could be very different.