Risks grow for investors as a new economic framework emerges


Policies to address issues such as climate change and national security are piling up without a coherent strategy. 6park.com
许多国家正将多个政策目标随意地组合成一个战略，总体结果有可能导致宏观经济和金融市场长期波动。



Issues such as climate change, energy independence and national security plans are piling up for investors — and no one is certain where the pieces will fall. 6park.com
气候变化、能源独立和国家安全计划等问题正堆积在投资者面前——没有人能确定这些问题将在哪里产生影响。 6park.com
      6park.com
Before the global financial crisis of 2008, the economic policy framework was largely more transparent and predictable: manage demand by stabilising inflation while controlling public debt. It required fewer policy instruments and benefited from expanding globalisation and growing capital flows. It was a strategy that blossomed under the World Trade Organization’s rules-based system. 6park.com
在2008年全球金融危机之前，经济政策框架在很大程度上更加透明和可预测：在控制公共债务的同时，通过稳定通胀来管理需求。它需要的政策工具更少，并受益于不断扩大的全球化和不断增长的资本流动。这是一种在世界贸易组织(WTO)以规则为基础的体系下开花结果的战略。 6park.com
      6park.com
But faced with a plethora of monetary, fiscal, regulatory, trade and industrial policies, that framework is now under pressure and it is on a collision course with the forces of rising nationalism and regionalised interests. As Mario Draghi warned during a speech in February, the disjointed policies emerging as a result could have unexpected and dire consequences. 6park.com
但面对泛滥的货币、财政、监管、贸易和产业政策，这一框架目前正面临压力，并与不断上升的民族主义和地区利益的力量发生冲突。正如马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在今年2月的一次演讲中警告的那样，由此产生的脱节政策可能会带来意想不到的可怕后果。 6park.com
      6park.com
“The transitions that our societies are undertaking, whether dictated by our choice to protect the climate or the threats of nostalgic autocrats, or by our indifference to the social consequences of globalisation, are profound. And differences between possible outcomes have never been so stark,” said the former prime minister of Italy and president of the European Central Bank. 6park.com
“我们的社会正在经历的转变，无论是由我们保护气候的选择、还是怀旧独裁者的威胁、或是我们对全球化社会后果的漠不关心所决定的，都是深刻的。可能结果之间的差异从未如此明显，”这位前意大利总理、欧洲央行(ECB)行长表示。 6park.com
      6park.com
Over the medium term, investors will have to deal with vast and sustained uncertainty driven by three critical factors. First, the haphazard grouping of multiple policy objectives into one strategy. For example, the White House has invested heavily in initiatives such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act to support domestic production and create jobs, directly promoting the linkage between the US’s domestic prowess and its international competitiveness. 6park.com
从中期来看，投资者将不得不应对由三个关键因素驱动的巨大而持续的不确定性。首先是政策制定者将多个政策目标随意地组合成一个战略。例如，白宫在《降低通胀法》(Inflation Reduction Act)和《芯片与科学法》(Chips and Science Act)等举措上投入了大量资金，以支持国内生产和创造就业，直接促进美国国内实力与其国际竞争力之间的联系。 6park.com
      6park.com
This transformation towards blended policymaking is one we see unfolding in many countries. But the aggregate result for investors has the potential for prolonged macroeconomic and financial volatility. 6park.com
我们看到，这种向混合政策制定的转变正在许多国家展开。但对投资者而言，总体结果有可能导致宏观经济和金融市场长期波动。 6park.com
      6park.com
Take Germany’s recent “debt brake” fiasco, for example. Its rigidity in imposing limits on budget deficits halted existing plans to modernise the domestic economy, including addressing climate change. And in the US, the IRA showcases the potentially unbridled reach of an expansive policy. While admirable in concept, such unwieldy and multi-faceted programmes can often have unproductive results. 6park.com
例如，德国最近的“债务刹车”就是一场失败。它在限制预算赤字方面的僵化，阻碍了实现国内经济现代化的现有计划，包括解决气候变化问题。在美国，《降低通胀法》展示了扩张性政策可能肆无忌惮的影响。虽然在概念上令人欣赏，但这种笨拙和多方面的计划往往会产生无益的结果。 6park.com
      6park.com
The second big overall risk is that a myriad of such policy measures — from trade tariffs to tax to asset purchases — are deployed together without a comprehensive assessment. A lack of synergy can lead to unexpected outcomes. For instance, the subsidies and public investment associated with climate transition and energy independence may require greater tolerance for inflation and higher public debt. 6park.com
第二大整体风险是，在没有进行全面评估的情况下，大量此类政策措施——从贸易关税到税收，再到资产购买——被同时部署。缺乏协同会导致意想不到的结果。例如，与气候转型和能源独立相关的补贴和公共投资可能需要对通胀和更高的公共债务有更大的容忍度。 6park.com
      6park.com
The impact of blended policy is not always negative. In the past year, subsidies and price caps were used to protect households and businesses from energy price increases — but they also unwittingly helped central banks anchor inflation expectations. Conversely, the cost of sanctions and trade restrictions is probably underestimated, and it is a problem that could grow despite the US’s “small yard, high fence” strategy to keep only a small swath of the technology landscape walled off from competition, namely China. 6park.com
混合政策的影响并不总是负面的。在过去的一年里，补贴和价格上限被用来保护家庭和企业免受能源价格上涨的影响——但它们也在无意中帮助央行锚定了通胀预期。相反，制裁和贸易限制的成本可能被低估了，尽管美国采取了“小院高墙”战略，只将一小部分科技领域与竞争（即中国）隔离开来，但这个问题可能会加剧。 6park.com
      6park.com
Finally, the third overall big risk is that citing defence as the focus and foundation for monetary and fiscal strategies opens the door to over-reach and unpredictability. Rerouting supply chains to allied countries, for instance, may avoid disruption from political and economic shock, but it is short-sighted in its approach, if not inconsistent and disorienting. Uncertainty is further introduced into global supply chains with the growing use of tariffs to gain leverage on non-trade related issues such as human or labour rights. Considering this, it’s not hard to imagine companies exercising excessive caution when making investment decisions in such a pervasively volatile environment. 6park.com
最后，第三个总体重大风险是，将国防作为货币和财政战略的重点和基础，为手伸得过长和不可预测性打开了大门。例如，将供应链转移到盟国或许会避免政治和经济冲击造成的破坏，但这种做法即使不是前后矛盾和迷失方向，也是短视的。越来越多地利用关税在人权或劳工权利等非贸易相关问题上获得影响力，给全球供应链进一步引入了不确定性。考虑到这一点，不难想象，在这样一个普遍不稳定的环境中，公司在做出投资决策时会过于谨慎。 6park.com
      6park.com
Notwithstanding these transformations, the global economy has shown resilience, even when tested further by a pandemic and jolting energy prices. However, it is far from clear how much more uncertainty the system can bear. 6park.com
尽管出现了这些转变，但全球经济即使在疫情和能源价格震荡的进一步考验下也表现出了韧性。然而，目前还远不清楚整个体系还能承受多少不确定性。 6park.com
      6park.com
We confront these challenges against the headwinds of still-elevated inflation and record-high public debt, conditions that lower the tolerance for mis-steps. Now more than ever, the importance of solid policy frameworks and stable institutions cannot be overstated. 6park.com
面对这些挑战的同时，我们还面临居高不下的通胀和创纪录的公共债务等不利因素，这些条件降低了对失误的容忍度。现在，坚实的政策框架和稳定的制度比以往任何时候都更加重要。