What’s after Nvidia in the AI rally?




While “software and services” workers are doing pretty well, it looks like that could change, says GS. They’re not all AI programmers, after all. Media & entertainment workers aren’t earning much compared to industry revenues, but executives still seem quite eager to capture “AI efficiency”. 6park.com
高盛指出，尽管“软件和服务”领域的工作者目前表现相当不错，但这种状况可能会有所改变。毕竟，并不是所有这些工作者都是人工智能程序员。媒体与娱乐行业的工作者与行业收入相比，他们的收入并不算高，但高管们似乎仍然非常热衷于追求“人工智能效率”的提升。 6park.com
     6park.com
Media-industry angst aside, this chart is part of a broader look at the “next phases of the AI trade” published late Thursday by GS. 6park.com
撇开媒体行业的忧虑，这张图表属于高盛周四晚间发布的关于‘人工智能交易下一阶段’的广泛研究内容之一。 6park.com
     6park.com
The bank highlights stocks and sectors they think could benefit after AI rally poster child Nvidia, which somehow trades at about the same multiple to earnings as it did 12 months ago after rallying 265 per cent, according to FactSet. 6park.com
根据FactSet的数据，该银行突出强调了它们认为在人工智能热潮之后可能会受益的股票和行业。代表性的例子是英伟达(Nvidia)，在股价上涨了265%之后，其市盈率不知何故与12个月前相差无几。 6park.com
     6park.com
For the rally’s next stage (they call it “infrastructure” or “Phase 2”) the bank predicts it’ll be standard tech-boom beneficiaries: Cyber security stocks, hardware makers and designers, cloud providers, etc. 6park.com
对于潮流的下一阶段，该银行预测标准的科技热潮受益者将包括：网络安全、硬件制造和设计、云服务等。 6park.com
     6park.com
One of these sectors has been less frothy, however — the bank says utilities companies should also benefit from the jump in electricity demand expected from AI (and presumably some regulatory support for raising rates). The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund is down 4.4 per cent over the past year. 6park.com
然而，有一个行业的泡沫程度较低——该银行指出，公用事业公司也应从人工智能预期带来的电力需求增长中获益（并且可能会得到一些调整费率的监管支持）。公用事业精选行业SPDR基金(Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund)在过去一年下跌了4.4%。 6park.com
     6park.com
Identifying Phase 3 is a little trickier. This is because it involves coming up with companies and sectors that could benefit from AI, but through less direct routes than simply getting paid for AI-related stuff, like power or hardware design or chips. 6park.com
识别第三阶段稍显复杂。这是因为它需要挖掘那些可能从人工智能获益的公司和行业，但这种获益并非来自直接为人工智能相关产品或服务（如电力、硬件设计或芯片）提供的直接报酬，而是通过更为间接的方式。 6park.com
     6park.com
GS did this by screening for companies/stocks that 1) discuss AI a lot in their corporate communications and point to a specific or obvious way to use it; and 2) trade with a relatively high correlation to Nvidia. 6park.com
高盛通过筛选符合以下条件的公司/股票来实现这一目标：1）在企业沟通中频繁讨论人工智能，并指出具体或明显的应用方式；2）其交易与英伟达的相关性相对较高。 6park.com
     6park.com
The latter choice is pretty funny because it sort of rules out the idea that there are clear AI plays that aren’t already at least a little priced in. Nevertheless, the bank ends up with an array of “AI enabled” software, tech and services companies like Meta, Accenture, Salesforce, Uber, Adobe, etc. 6park.com
后者的选择颇具讽刺意味，因为它基本排除了还未被至少部分反映在价格中的明显AI策略的可能性。尽管如此，该银行最终还是集齐了一系列“AI赋能”的软件、技术和服务公司，比如Meta、埃森哲(Accenture)、Salesforce、优步(Uber)、Adobe等。 6park.com
     6park.com
And finally there’s Phase 4. This includes the sectors and companies that want to improve their productivity with AI but haven’t gotten as far implementing those plans: 6park.com
最后是第四阶段。这包括那些希望利用人工智能提升生产效率，但在实施这些计划上尚未取得显着进展的行业和公司： 6park.com
     6park.com
We previously estimated the boost for the typical Russell 1000 stock would be 11% through a revenue channel or 26% through a margin channel . . . Consistent with the expected productivity gains, Software & Services and Commercial & Professional Services account for 30% of productivity-related AI mentions during 4Q earnings season. We only include companies where managements discussed AI in the explicit context of efficiency, productivity, or cost. The transcript analysis helps overlay potential gains from AI adoption with managements likely to embrace the technology to harness those gains. 6park.com
我们先前预估，通过收入途径，典型的罗素1000指数股票的涨幅可达11%，而通过利润率途径则能达到26%……与预期的生产力增长相符，软件与服务以及商业与专业服务在第四季度财报季中占据了与生产力相关的AI提及的30%。我们只考虑那些在效率、生产力或成本方面明确讨论AI的公司。这种透过会议记录的分析有助于我们叠加从AI采纳中可能获得的潜在收益与可能积极采用此技术以实现这些收益的管理层。 6park.com
     6park.com
That includes the sectors featured in the chart at the top of this story. Other possibilities include the sectors situated closer to the top and right side of the chart below: 6park.com
这包括了本文开头图表中展示的行业。其他潜在行业还包括位于下方图表顶部和右侧的领域： 6park.com
     6park.com
Banks aren’t exempt from job automation either, as anyone who used to work on a trading floor could tell you. 6park.com
银行同样无法避免工作自动化的趋势，正如任何曾在交易大厅工作过的人能告诉你的。