The Fed’s Challenge: Has It Hit the Brakes Hard Enough?


美国经济表现的韧性削弱了有关该国货币政策过紧的看法，但这种情况不久可能发生变化。


美联储将于3月19日至20日召开会议，决定何时降息以及降息幅度。

两年前，当美国联邦储备委员会（简称：美联储）开始大幅提高利率时，房贷利率达到7%的可能性吓坏了阿拉巴马州伯明翰的房屋建筑商Dwight Sandlin。“我当时吓死了。真是吓死了，”他说。 6park.com
When the Federal Reserve began sharply raising interest rates two years ago, the prospect of mortgage rates hitting 7% terrified Dwight Sandlin, a home builder based in Birmingham, Ala. “I was scared to death. Scared. To. Death,” he said. 6park.com
   6park.com
他刚度过了有史以来最赚钱的一年。 6park.com
He just booked his most profitable year ever. 6park.com
    
虽然他的现代农庄风格住宅的销售自新冠疫情后的地产狂潮以来已有所下滑，但由于待售现房的短缺抬高了房价，利润依然很可观。 6park.com
While sales of his modern farmhouse-style homes have dipped since the postpandemic frenzy, profits are strong because a shortage of existing homes for sale has propped up prices.  6park.com
    6park.com
“市场仍然非常坚挺--谈不上很好，但很坚挺。原因只有一个：库存不足，”Sandlin说。“如果现在你都不能在建房生意上赚钱，那你还是做别的生意吧。” 6park.com
“The market is still very firm—not great, but firm. And there’s only one reason: There ain’t enough inventory,” said Sandlin. “If you can’t make money in the home-building business right now, you need to go do something else.” 6park.com
    
美联储本周将召开会议，决定今年晚些时候是否降息、何时降息以及降息幅度。美联储必须回答的一个关键问题是： 美联储的货币政策究竟有多紧？从Sandlin等建筑商的经历和消费者的整体韧性来看，并不是很紧。对于美联储官员来说，这就削弱了大幅降息或很快降息的理由，尤其是在美国两个月的通胀都高于预期之后。 6park.com
The Fed meets this week to decide whether, when and by how much it should cut rates later this year. A key question it must answer: Just how tight is its monetary policy? Not very tight, judging by the experience of builders such as Sandlin and consumers’ overall resilience. For Fed officials, that argues against cutting rates much, or soon, especially after two months of firmer-than-expected inflation. 6park.com
     
另一方面，从名义利率和通胀调整后利率的角度来看，目前位于5.25%至5.5%联邦基金利率目标都相对较高，而且有迹象表明美国经济当前的强势不会持久——美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)曾暗示过这一点。如果是这样，那么货币政策可能很快就会显得紧了，而这会强化下调利率的理由。 6park.com
On the other hand the federal-funds rate target, at 5.25% to 5.5%, is relatively high in nominal and inflation-adjusted terms, and there are signs the economy’s current strength won’t last—a point Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at. If so, then monetary policy might soon start to look tight, reinforcing the case for cutting.  6park.com
    6park.com
一个衡量通货膨胀的关键指标已从去年年初的近5%降至近几个月的3%以下；该指标剔除了波动较大的能源和食品价格。 6park.com
A key gauge of inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, has fallen below 3% in recent months from nearly 5% early last year.


美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国经济当前的强势不会持久。

双脚踩在刹车上--还是单脚？

由于存在滞后性，在过去一段时间的加息之后，美国经济增长是会维持下去还是被压垮的问题很可能在未来六个月内有答案。 6park.com
Because of lags, the question of whether growth perseveres or rolls over in the face of past interest-rate hikes might well be resolved in the next six months. 6park.com
    
美联储提高短期利率的目的是通过减缓需求、招聘和工资增长来抑制通胀。加息通过对股票价格、长期债券和房贷利率等整体性金融条件产生连锁反应来实现这一目的。实现保持经济全力发展和通胀稳定的金融条件的利率被称为“中性利率”。如果要达到减缓经济增长和降低通胀的目的，美联储必须将利率推升到中性利率以上的水平。 6park.com
The Fed raises short-term interest rates to cool inflation by slowing demand, hiring and wage growth. It does that through the ripple effects on broader financial conditions such as stock prices and long-term bond and mortgage rates. The interest rate that achieves financial conditions that keep the economy at full strength and inflation steady is called “neutral.” To slow growth and reduce inflation, the Fed must push rates above neutral. 6park.com
    
一些企业高管、经济学家和美联储官员表示，稳健的增长表明，目前利率可能并没有比中性水平高出那么多。 6park.com
Some business executives, economists and Fed officials say solid growth suggests rates might not be that far above neutral right now.  6park.com
    
明尼阿波利斯联储行行长卡什卡利(Neel Kashkari)说：“我们原以为我们有两只脚踩在刹车上，但也许我们实际上只有一只脚踩在刹车上，这就是为什么我们没有看到需求减少那么多的原因。” 6park.com
“We thought we had two feet on the brakes, but maybe we in fact only have one foot on the brakes, and that’s why we haven’t seen as much of a reduction in demand,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said.


麦当劳高管表示，现在自己在家做饭、而不外出就餐的消费者越来越多，因为那种储蓄缓冲已不复存在。

疫情带来的特殊状况降低了加息的效果

四年前新冠疫情爆发时，美国政府向经济领域提供了大量现金，同时美联储把利率下调至接近零。企业和消费者当时锁定了这些低利率，削弱了美联储两年后快速收紧政策的初步效果。 6park.com
When Covid-19 hit four years ago, the government showered the economy with cash and the Fed pushed interest rates down to near zero. Businesses and consumers locked in those low rates, dulling the initial effect of the Fed’s rapid tightening two years later. 6park.com
    
曾担任波士顿联储行行长的罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)表示，得益于政府最近在基础设施和绿色能源项目上的支出，尽管利率上升，但还没有看到原本应会出现的建筑业工作岗位减少。 6park.com
Thanks to more recent government spending on infrastructure and green-energy projects, “you haven’t seen the normal shedding of construction jobs that you should have” with higher rates, said Eric Rosengren, former president of the Boston Fed.  6park.com
    
住房领域在疫情后面对高利率表现出的韧性超过其它所有行业。从?史上看，该领域是美联储紧缩政策减缓经济的最重要渠道。成屋销售的确已经下滑。 6park.com
No sector illustrates the postpandemic resilience to high rates as much as housing. Historically, it is the most important channel through which Fed tightening slows the economy. To be sure, sales of existing homes have tumbled. 6park.com
   
但房价尚未下跌，因为许多锁定了较低房贷利率的美国人仍保持淡定，还有许多人没有去贷款，因为可买的房子太少了。一些房屋建筑商为购房者提供的新房利率略低于市场利率，减轻了美联储加息对购房者的冲击。 6park.com
But prices haven’t fallen because many Americans who locked in low mortgage rates are staying put, as are many who have no loan since there is so little to buy. Some home builders are offering buyers somewhat below-market interest rates on new homes, offsetting the full hit from Fed hikes for their buyers. 6park.com
    
驻纽约的经济学家Ray Farris表示，美国房地产市场像一个压紧的弹簧，存在复苏动力。 6park.com
“This is a property market that wants to recover,” said Ray Farris, an economist based in New York. “This thing is a loaded spring.” 6park.com
    
房价的上涨以及美国股市去年11月以来近20%的涨势提升了人们的财富，从而对消费构成支持，尤其是高收入家庭的消费。比特币价格最近飙升至创纪录水平，体现了冒险热情的高涨。 6park.com
Higher housing prices and a stock market up nearly 20% since November are boosting wealth and thus supporting consumption, especially of high-income households. The price of bitcoin has recently surged to records, a sign of exuberant risk-taking.



此外，过去两年因预期经济衰退而变得较为谨慎的银行可能打开放贷闸门。今年债券发行也表现强劲。 6park.com
In addition, banks that turned more cautious over the last two years in anticipation of a recession could open up lending spigots. Bond issuance has been strong this year. 6park.com
    
Farris表示，目前想借到钱并不困难，美国和欧洲的债务市场完全开放，对投资级和投机级公司都是如此。 6park.com
“Find me a place where you can’t borrow money,” said Farris. “The debt markets in the United States and in Europe are completely open,” for both investment and speculative-grade companies.

政策收紧的证据

但有理由认为，2023年令人惊讶的3.1%的快速增长并未反映货币政策的真正紧缩程度。鲍威尔已暗示，这一增长并非源于需求，而是反映了移民增加和更多人加入劳动力大军所带来的供应爆发。他在1月31日对记者表示，这不会永远持续下去，当这种情况逐渐消失时，货币政策的限制性可能会更明显地表现出来。 6park.com
But there are reasons to think 2023’s surprisingly brisk 3.1% growth doesn’t capture how tight monetary policy really is. Powell has suggested that growth isn’t a result of demand but instead reflects a burst of supply from higher immigration and more people entering the workforce. “That won’t go on forever,” he told reporters on Jan. 31. “When that peters out, the [monetary] restriction will show up, probably, more sharply.” 6park.com
    
一些经济学家表示，只要利率维持在目前的高位，经济就会面临家庭和企业的拖累，因为家庭和企业必须将更多收入用于利息支出。 6park.com
Some economists say as long as interest rates stay as high as they are now, the economy will face a drag from households and businesses that must devote more income to interest expenses.  6park.com
   
他们指出了其他一些薄弱环节。根据标普全球(S&P Global)的数据，商业地产价值暴跌，写字楼抵押贷款的拖欠率在去年12月跃升至5.8%，为2017年末以来最高。公寓抵押贷款的拖欠率也在攀升。 6park.com
They point to other pockets of weakness. Commercial real-estate values have tumbled and delinquency rates on office-backed loans jumped in December to 5.8%, the highest since late 2017, according to S&P Global. Delinquencies on apartment-backed loans are also creeping up. 6park.com
    
调查显示，各银行正在撤出消费贷款业务。信用卡利率接近历史最高水平，信用卡拖欠率也在上升。1月和2月零售销售疲软。 6park.com
Surveys show banks are pulling back from consumer lending. Interest rates on credit cards are near record highs and credit-card delinquencies are rising. Retail sales in January and February were soft.



BCA Research驻蒙特利尔首席全球策略师Peter Berezin说：“你必须看看银行是否愿意继续向消费者提供贷款，而数据表明，银行并不像一两年前那样热衷于此。” 6park.com
“You have to look at whether banks are willing to continue making loans to consumers, and the data suggests they’re not quite as keen as they were a year ago or two years ago,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research in Montreal. 6park.com
    
新冠疫情期间，支出受限和政府救济为低收入消费者积累了家庭储蓄，而目前这种储蓄缓冲似乎也已消耗殆尽。Berezin说，经通胀因素调整后，除20%最富裕家庭外，其他家庭的银行存款和货币市场基金持有都低于疫情前水平。 6park.com
Household savings buffers for lower-income consumers, built up during the pandemic thanks to restrained spending and government relief, also appear to be exhausted. Bank deposits and money-market funds are below prepandemic levels when adjusted for inflation for all but the 20% most affluent households, said Berezin. 6park.com
    
消费者在过去几年大量消费是因为“他们兜里有钱”，费城联邦储备银行行长哈克(Patrick Harker)说。“对于中低收入消费者来说，现在这些钱已经花光了。没钱了，生活开始捉襟见肘。这解释了他们为何会大量使用信用卡。” 6park.com
Consumers spent heavily the past few years because “they had money in their pockets,” said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. “For consumers of lower-to-moderate income, they’ve burned through that. It is gone, and they are struggling. That’s why they’re loading up on credit-card debt.”


没有哪个行业能像房地产行业那样展现出疫情后对高利率的抵御能力。

快餐巨头麦当劳(McDonald's)的首席财务官Ian Borden上周表示，现在自己在家做饭、而不外出就餐的消费者越来越多，因为那种储蓄缓冲已不复存在。 6park.com
Ian Borden, chief financial officer at fast-food giant McDonald’s, said last week that more consumers are eating at home instead of dining out now that those savings buffers are gone. 6park.com
    
全美第二大住宅建筑商Lennar的高管上周表示，最近几个月有更多潜在购房者因负债过多而难以获得贷款资格。 6park.com
And executives at Lennar, the nation’s second-largest home builder, said last week that more prospective buyers in recent months were struggling to qualify for a loan because they had too much debt. 6park.com
   
虽然就业增长强劲，失业率稳定，但职位空缺数量正日益减少，工资增长已然放缓，这都表明劳动力需求降温。 6park.com
While job growth is strong and unemployment stable, the number of open jobs is declining and wage growth has slowed, which both point to cooler demand for labor. 6park.com
    
据美国独立企业联盟(National Federation of Independent Business)称，2月份计划增加就业岗位的小企业比例降至12%，是自疫情以来的最低水平。 6park.com
The share of small businesses planning to add jobs fell to 12% in February, the lowest since the pandemic, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. 6park.com
    
除了政府和医疗健康行业外，其他领域的招聘“一直很平淡”，哈克说。“这让我开始有点担心。” 6park.com
Outside of hiring for government and healthcare, “it’s been pretty flat,” said Harker. “That starts to give me a little concern.” 6park.com
    
解读相互矛盾的信号之难解释了为什么官员们都在关注通胀变化。如果通胀率继续走低，“你可能会问，‘为什么要按兵不动？’”明尼阿波利斯联储银行行长卡什卡利说。但如果经济正稳健扩张，那么问“为什么要这么做？”也合情合理。 6park.com
The challenge of unscrambling conflicting signals explains why officials are focusing on what happens with inflation. If inflation continues to move lower, “you could say, ‘Why keep rates where they are?’” said Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed president. But if the economy is expanding solidly, it is fair to ask “why do anything?”