The End of Japan’s Negative Rates Will Be a Slow-Moving Tsunami


日本利率转为正值的长期影响可能是深远的，从房贷利率到美国政府融资等都会受到影响。


位于东京的日本央行总部。日本央行很可能会缓慢加息。

日本股市创下34年新高。日本或许很快就会迎来另一个里程碑：该国央行周二可能进行17年来的首次加息。 6park.com
Japan’s stocks have reached levels that haven’t been seen for 34 years. The country is likely to hit another milestone soon: Its central bank could raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years as soon as Tuesday. 6park.com
    
即便日本利率上调至正值，也不会在一夜之间重塑市场格局。但长期影响可能是深远的，特别是一旦发生美国经济增长因任何原因出现结构性下滑、从而进一步缩小许多美国资产收益率优势的情况。日本是美国国债的最大海外持有国，也是主要的海外贷款国和出口大国，日本企业的利润和股票一直受到超低价日圆的强有力支撑。如果有更多日本资本留在国内，最终可能影响到包括美国房贷和发展中国家基础设施融资在内的多种贷款利率。 6park.com
Higher, and positive, Japanese rates won’t reshape markets overnight. But the long-term effects could be profound, particularly if U.S. growth heads structurally lower for any reason, further narrowing the yield advantage of many U.S. assets. Japan is the single largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasurys, a major overseas lender, and an export heavyweight whose corporate earnings—and stocks—have been significantly supported by the ultracheap Japanese yen. More Japanese capital staying at home could eventually impact the price of everything from U.S. mortgages to infrastructure finance in the developing world.


日圆升值或许会削弱投资者对飙升的日本股市的热情。

在过去两年的大部分时间里，日本的货币政策都逆全球潮流而动，维持了超低利率制度。而如今，在多数其他主要央行即将降息之际，日本央行准备再次逆势而动。日本国内媒体周末报道称，日本央行将在周一和周二的政策委员会会议上结束自2016年以来实施的负利率政策。 6park.com
For much of the past two years, Japan has swum against global monetary tides, maintaining its ultralow interest-rate regime. But now, as most other major central banks are about to cut rates, the Bank of Japan is poised to break the trend again. Domestic media reported over the weekend that Japan’s central bank will end its negative interest rates, which have been in place since 2016, during its policy board meeting on Monday and Tuesday. 6park.com
    
此前有越来越多的证据表明，在经历多年的工资增长停滞之后，日本就业市场的基础日益稳固。日本劳动组合总联合会(Japan Trade Union Confederation)上周表示，根据日本年度春季工资谈判的第一轮结果，工会争取到了5.28%的平均工资涨幅。在截至2022年的整个十年中，最终的年度工资涨幅从未超过2.4%。 6park.com
The decision would come after mounting evidence that the job market is on an increasingly strong footing, after years of stagnant wage growth. Unions secured an average salary increase of 5.28%, according to the first-round results of Japan’s annual spring wage negotiations, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation said last week. For the entire decade ending in 2022, the final annual increase never exceeded 2.4%. 6park.com
    
短期内可能不会有太大变化。日本央行很可能会缓慢加息：如果说有什么不同的话，过去几年的情况只是再次证明了日本央行缓慢而谨慎的声誉。此外，日本1月份通胀率为2.2%，虽然以日本的标准来看仍然较高，但已较去年的峰值水平下降。 6park.com
Much likely won’t change in the short term. The Bank of Japan will probably pace its rate increases slowly: The past couple of years have, if anything, reaffirmed its reputation for moving slowly and deliberately. Moreover, while inflation is still high by Japanese standards—2.2% in January—it has already cooled from the peaks of last year.



日本债券收益率回升，但仍大幅低于美国。10年期美国国债和日本国债之间的利差为3.5个百分点，明显低于几个月前两者之间4.2个百分点的利差，但仍远高于三年前的1.5个百分点。 6park.com
Japanese bond yields have picked up, but they are still substantially lower than in the U.S. The rate differential between 10-year government bonds in the U.S. and Japan stands at 3.5 percentage points. That is significantly lower than the 4.2-percentage-point gap of a few months ago, but still way higher than the 1.5 percentage points of three years ago. 6park.com
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即便如此，利差收窄仍将对日圆构成支撑，特别是如果美联储在今年晚些时候降息的话，看起来可能性较大。日圆升值或许会削弱投资者对飙升的日本股市的热情。对外国投资者来说，以美元计价的日本股票将变得更加昂贵，而外国投资者一直是推动日本股市上涨的重要力量。此外，日圆走强也会影响到一些日本公司的利润，尤其是大型出口商。 6park.com
Even so, a narrowing rate gap—especially if the Fed cuts rates later this year, as seems likely—will support the Japanese yen. That could damp enthusiasm for rip-roaring Japanese stocks. They would become more expensive in dollar terms for foreign investors, who have been significant drivers of the rally. A stronger yen would also hit profits at some Japanese companies, especially big exporters. 6park.com
   
日本逐步提高利率在短期内很可能也不会对投资流动产生太大影响。但如果回归正利率的趋势得以持续，那么接下来的情况就会有所不同。 6park.com
Likewise, gradual interest-rate increases in Japan probably won’t change investment flows much in the short term. But it could be a different story down the road if the shift back to positive rates proves sustainable. 6park.com
   
数十年来，寻求更高收益的日本个人和企业一直大举投资海外市场。截至去年年底，日本的海外证券投资总额约合4.2万亿美元，其中很大一部分来自日本的退休基金和保险公司；如果日本央行加息，这些投资者可能会发现国内突然有了更具吸引力的投资选择。例如，日本投资者持有约1.1万亿美元的美国国债，是美国国债最大的外国投资者。 6park.com
Japanese individuals and companies have been big investors abroad in search of higher yield for decades. The country’s foreign-portfolio investments stood at the equivalent of $4.2 trillion at the end of last year. A big chunk of that comes from Japanese pension funds and insurers, who would suddenly have more attractive options at home. Japanese investors, for example, hold around $1.1 trillion of Treasury bonds, making them the largest foreign owner. 6park.com
   
在多数投资者的记忆中，日本投资者一直在全球寻找更好的回报。如果这种局面开始发生改变，那么几乎所有地方都会受到影响，这是迟早的事。 6park.com
Japanese investors have been scouring the globe for better returns for as long as most investors can remember. If that starts to change, the effects will be felt nearly everywhere—sooner or later.