Taiwan’s Tough Call on How to Stop China: Bigger Weapons or Lots of Cheap Ones


美国鼓励台湾采用成本较低的非对称战术，以抵御中国可能的入侵。


军事人员在台湾东部的花莲空军基地准备导弹装载演习。

大卫不应该过于依赖弹弓来击退歌利亚。他还需要大量坦克和喷气式战斗机。 6park.com
David shouldn’t rely too much on slingshots to repel Goliath. He’ll need plenty of tanks and jet fighters too. 6park.com
    
这是台湾防务官员和学者从乌克兰最新动态中得到的启示。乌克兰在等待盟国提供更强大硬件设备之际，一直难以阻止俄罗斯的进攻。 6park.com
That is the takeaway for defense officials and scholars in Taiwan from the latest developments in Ukraine, where Kyiv has struggled to block Russian advances while waiting for allies to deliver more powerful hardware. 6park.com
    
在讨论台湾如何挫败中国夺岛企图时，对重型武器的需求一直是台北和华盛顿争论的焦点之一。 6park.com
The need for heavy weapons has been a point of contention between Taipei and Washington in discussing how Taiwan would blunt a Chinese attempt to seize the island. 6park.com
    
10多年来，美国官员一直鼓励台湾将资金投入相对便宜的小型武器，比如肩扛式导弹、无人机和水雷等。目的是要通过成千上万次小规模打击，近距离拦截中国两栖入侵部队。 6park.com
For more than a decade, U.S. officials have encouraged Taiwan to invest in small, relatively cheap weapons such as shoulder-fired missiles, drones and sea mines. The goal would be to bring a Chinese amphibious invasion force to a halt at close range with thousands of small strikes. 6park.com
    
这种非对称作战是游击队和弱国面对强大对手时的首选战术之一。乌克兰在俄乌战争之初成功使用标枪(Javelin)导弹等非对称武器摧毁了俄方坦克，切断了俄补给车队，用实际行动展示了这一战术。 6park.com
Such asymmetrical warfare is a favorite tactic of guerrillas and weaker nations facing big rivals. Ukraine’s initial successes in using asymmetrical weapons such as Javelin missiles in destroying Russian tanks and severing supply convoys showcased the tactic. 6park.com
    
但最近，乌克兰开始热切渴望美国最强大的重型武器，如F-16喷气式战斗机、M1艾布拉姆斯(Abrams)坦克等，但这些武器迄今只有少量交付。乌克兰去年在突破俄军建立的防御阵地时遇到困难，这给了俄罗斯在今年发动潜在春季攻势之前加强军力的时间。 6park.com
More recently, however, Ukraine has felt the want of America’s most powerful big-ticket weapons—from F-16 jets to M1 Abrams tanks, delivered so far in only small quantities. Ukraine had trouble last year breaking through fortified positions established by Russian troops, giving Moscow time to build its strength before a possible spring offensive this year. 6park.com
    
如果中国在台湾岛周围集结军队封岛，或者中国军队在台湾建立稳固的滩头阵地，台湾担心会面临与乌克兰类似的困境。台湾防务官员和分析人士说，在这种情况下，小型短程武器可能无法有效削弱敌人，台湾需要更大型的武器。 6park.com
Taiwan fears the same plight if China amasses forces around the island in a blockade, or if Beijing’s military establishes a firm beachhead on Taiwan. In such scenarios, small, short-range weapons could be less effective at degrading the enemy, and Taiwan would need bigger hardware, Taiwanese defense officials and analysts say. 6park.com
    
研究机构台湾智库(Taiwan Thinktank)咨询委员、前执政党外交官员赖怡忠说：“有些人主张的非对称战略会把整个台湾置于绞肉机中。” 6park.com
“The asymmetrical approach advocated by some people would put the whole of Taiwan into a meat grinder,” said I-Chung Lai, a former ruling-party foreign-affairs official now at Taiwan Thinktank, a research organization. 6park.com
    
台湾下任总统赖清德将于今年5月上任，如何选择合适的武器组合是他面临的最具挑战性的任务之一。 6park.com
Figuring out the right weapons mix is among the most challenging tasks for Taiwan’s next president, Lai Ching-te, who takes office in May. 6park.com
    
过去几年，在美国的施压下，台湾的军购更重视非对称武器，如“鱼叉”(Harpoon)反舰导弹、高机动火箭炮系统(Himars)发射器和地雷。 6park.com
For the past few years, Taiwan’s procurement, under U.S. pressure, has put more emphasis on asymmetrical weapons such as Harpoon antiship missiles, Himars rocket launchers and mines. 6park.com
    
长期以来，台湾军方一直偏爱坦克和喷气式战斗机等重型武器，为长期台海冲突做准备。如果台湾当选总统赖清德愿意，他可能会推动美国更快交付之前商定的M1艾布拉姆斯(M1 Abrams)坦克、榴弹炮和F-16战斗机等武器订单。 6park.com
The Taiwanese military has long favored heavy weapons such as tanks and jet fighters in preparation for a longer conflict against Beijing. If he agrees, President-elect Lai could push the U.S. to deliver more quickly on previously agreed orders for weapons such as M1 Abrams tanks, howitzers and F-16s. 6park.com
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准备数量充足的武器和弹药对台湾来说至关重要，因为在冲突期间运送物资的难度会增大。乌克兰可以通过西部边境的公路和铁路接收补给，而运往台湾的物资则必须通过有中国军队巡逻的空中和海上通道。 6park.com
Preparing weapons and munitions in sufficient quantities is vital for Taiwan because it would be harder to deliver supplies during a conflict. While Ukraine can receive supplies by road and rail across its western border, shipments to Taiwan would have to come through air and sea lanes patrolled by China. 6park.com
   
由于美国为台湾提供大量军事装备，并帮助训练台湾的海陆空部队，因此美国深度参与了台湾的相关讨论。 6park.com
The U.S. is deeply intertwined in the discussion because it provides much of Taiwan’s military equipment and helps to train its air, land and sea forces.



在现任总统蔡英文的领导下，台湾在非对称武器问题上已经向美国的想法靠拢。台湾增加了几种武器的订单，如400枚陆上发射的“鱼叉” 导弹，不过美国很难向台湾快速交付。台湾也在加紧生产自己的导弹，包括与“鱼叉” 导弹类似的“雄风”反舰导弹。 6park.com
Under the current president, Tsai Ing-wen, Taipei edged closer to U.S. thinking about asymmetrical weapons. It stepped up orders for several types of them such as 400 land-launched Harpoon missiles, although the U.S. has struggled to deliver them quickly. Taiwan is also ramping up its own missile production, including Hsiung Feng antiship missiles that are similar to Harpoon missiles. 6park.com
    
美国的压力并不意味着台北会停止购买高价武器。根据华盛顿智库Cato Institute去年的统计，在特朗普(Donald Trump)和拜登(Joe Biden)执政期间，台湾签署了44亿美元的包括鱼叉导弹在内的非对称武器购买合同，常规武器的订单为117亿美元。 6park.com
The U.S. pressure didn’t mean Taipei stopped buying big-ticket items. During the Trump and Biden administrations, Taiwan signed contracts to buy $4.4 billion in asymmetrical weapons, including the Harpoon missiles, compared with $11.7 billion in orders for conventional weapons, according to a tally last year by the Cato Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank. 6park.com
    
这些常规武器包括66架F-16战斗机和108辆M1艾布拉姆斯坦克，这些都是特朗普时期的大订单，定于未来几年内运抵台湾。 6park.com
Those conventional weapons include 66 F-16s and 108 M1 Abrams tanks, big orders made during the Trump administration that are due to reach Taiwan in the next few years. 6park.com
   
美国官员和军事学者长期以来一直认为，这些昂贵的硬件容易在规模大得多的中国人民解放军的进攻初期被摧毁 。根据美国智库的模拟，如果中国发动全面入侵，大部分台湾空军或海军力量将很快被中国的导弹摧毁。 6park.com
U.S. officials and military scholars have long believed that the expensive hardware is apt to get wiped out by China’s much larger military, the People’s Liberation Army, in the early stages of attack. Simulations of an all-out Chinese invasion run by American think tanks assume most of the Taiwanese air force or navy would be quickly destroyed by Chinese missile strikes. 6park.com
    
弗吉尼亚州乔治梅森大学(George Mason University)的安全学者Michael Hunzeker表示，如果不转向全面的非对称防御路线，一旦遭进犯，台湾有可能迅速战败。Hunzeker等人认为，台湾军方偏好价格高昂的武器，因此可投向肩扛式导弹等工具的资金受到了限制，而在一些怀疑论者眼中，后者是更有效的工具。 6park.com
Without shifting to a full asymmetrical defense approach, Taiwan risks a quick defeat if invaded, said Michael Hunzeker, a security scholar at George Mason University in Virginia. He and others observe that the Taiwanese military’s penchant for pricey weapons limits funds for what the skeptics see as more effective tools such as shoulder-fired missiles. 6park.com
    
他说：“我们这些以批判眼光审视台湾军方的人如果看到了什么，解放军只会看得更清楚。” 6park.com
“For those of us who are critical of the Taiwanese military, if we see what we see, the PLA sees it even better,” he said.



台湾一些人士也在向赖清德提出类似的建议。他们说，要是与北京方面及其200万现役军人发生正面交锋，这个拥有2,350万人口、实行民主制度的自治岛屿没有机会获胜。 6park.com
Some in Taiwan are also giving Lai similar advice. They say the self-governing democracy of 23.5 million people has no chance of winning a head-to-head battle with Beijing and its two million active-duty military service members. 6park.com
    
于2017年至2019年担任台湾参谋总长的李喜明曾启动一项部署微型突击艇的计划，这些微型突击艇可以隐藏在渔港中，一旦有中国部队来犯，可以发动游击式导弹攻击。该计划在李喜明卸任后被取消。 6park.com
Lee Hsi-min, Taiwan’s top military officer from 2017 to 2019, started a program to deploy tiny assault boats that could hide in fishing harbors and make hit-and-run style missile attacks on any Chinese invasion force. The program was scrapped after Lee left office. 6park.com
    
李喜明说，台湾140亿美元的军事预算不足以支撑在所有维度与北京方面作战，重点应放在抗击两栖攻台部队上，中国最终将需要以两栖攻台部队来夺取台湾的海滩和机场。李喜明说，我们必须以我们的存续为先。 6park.com
Lee said Taiwan’s $14 billion military budget wasn’t enough to bring the fight to Beijing in all domains, and the focus should lie in countering the amphibious invasion force that China would ultimately need to seize Taiwan’s beaches and airfields. “We have to prioritize our existence,” Lee said. 6park.com
    
辩论的另一方则表示，这幅图景未将其他可供传统武器大显身手的情境纳入考量。其中一种情境是封锁。封锁是中国军事文本中记载的策略，最近的一项对52位美国和台湾学者的调查显示，比起突然攻台，封锁台湾的几率更大。 6park.com
Those on the other side of the debate say that missing in this picture is consideration of other scenarios in which traditional weaponry would play an important role. One such scenario is a blockade, a strategy documented in Chinese military texts and viewed as more likely than a sudden invasion in a recent survey of 52 American and Taiwanese scholars. 6park.com
    
中国的封锁将利用船只和飞机切断台湾的燃料和其他补给，以迫使台湾不战而屈服。 6park.com
A Chinese blockade would use ships and aircraft to cut Taiwan off from fuel and other supplies, seeking to pressure it to submit without a fight.


台湾当选总统赖清德可能会推动美国更快交付之前商定的武器订单。

台湾智库的前执政党官员赖怡忠说，除非台湾拥有强大的海军舰艇和最新型的喷气式战斗机来突破封锁，否则实际上就相当于把自己的水域让给了中国。他说，肩扛式“毒刺”( Stinger)导弹在突破中国集结在海岸之外的舰队时并无多大用处。 6park.com
Lai, the former ruling-party official at Taiwan Thinktank, said unless Taiwan has powerful naval vessels and updated jet fighters to break through the blockade, it would be effectively ceding its waters to China. A shoulder-mounted Stinger missile would be little use trying to breach a Chinese armada amassed off the coast, he said. 6park.com
    
“我们不能坐等他们抵达海滩，”赖怡忠说。 6park.com
“We can’t just wait for them to arrive on the beaches,” Lai said. 6park.com
   
如果中国军队成功登陆台湾，届时台湾所面临的情形就和乌克兰差不多了。美国军事战略家普遍认为台湾军队在没有外来支援的情况下最多只能坚持几个月。但在美国的干预下，战斗可能会转为将中国军队逐出台湾。 6park.com
A direct analogy to Ukraine could come if Chinese forces succeed in landing on Taiwan. American military strategists generally assume Taiwanese forces could hold out for a few months at most without outside support. But with U.S. intervention, the battle might shift to an effort to dislodge the Chinese military. 6park.com
    
台湾的战略人士称，在这种情况下，台湾将需要和现在的乌克兰一样，迫切请求获得装备。 6park.com
In that scenario, Taiwan would need the same equipment Ukraine is urgently requesting, strategists in Taiwan say.  6park.com
    
前美国空军军官、现台湾国立政治大学(National Chengchi University)研究员吉耐狮(Guermantes Lailari)说：“非对称武器是必要的，但尚不足以应对台湾面临的挑战。” 6park.com
“Asymmetrical weapons are necessary but not sufficient for the challenges Taiwan faces,” said Guermantes Lailari, a former U.S. Air Force officer who is now a research fellow at National Chengchi University in Taiwan.


台湾金门岛上的海滩防御设施，背景为中国厦门市。