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Global Era of Negative Interest Rates Ends as Japan Goes to Zero
负利率虽不是灵丹妙药，但似乎也至少有些许功劳。因此，尽管负利率暂时退场，但几乎肯定会被留在央行的工具箱里，以防类似的紧急情况再次发生。
日本央行行长植田和男周二在央行结束负利率后在东京发表讲话。 The world’s nearly 12-year experiment with negative interest rates is over now that the last holdout, the Bank of Japan, has moved its key policy rate back to at least zero. 6park.com
随着最后一个坚持负利率的央行日本央行将关键政策利率调回到不低于零，全球为时近12年的负利率实验宣告落幕。 6park.com
过去15年间，各国央行采取了许多不同寻常的政策措施，其中最具争议、潜在利弊不甚明朗的政策之一就是负利率。在负利率政策下，储户非但拿不到利息还要向银行支付费用。 6park.comOf the many unusual measures central bankers took over the past decade and a half, among the most controversial, with uncertain benefits and potential risks, were negative interest rates, when depositors pay to store money at a bank instead of being paid. 6park.com
这场实验的最终结论是，负利率本身不足以拉动经济摆脱低迷，也不足以推动通胀率朝着多家央行2%的目标迈进。新冠疫情和乌克兰战争才是实现这一目标的推手。 6park.comThe experiment’s bottom line: Negative rates weren’t enough by themselves to pull economies out of a funk or lift inflation toward central banks’ 2% targets. It took the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine to accomplish that.
Yet if negative rates weren’t a cure-all, they seemed to help at least a little. In Japan’s case, negative rates, after a delay, contributed to driving the yen down and import prices up, fueling the return of inflation. Despite some adverse effects, banking systems didn’t totter as feared. 6park.com
然而，负利率虽不是灵丹妙药，但似乎也至少有些许功劳。就日本而言，虽有时滞，但负利率帮助拉低了日圆汇率，推动进口价格上涨，助推了通货膨胀的回归。同时，尽管负利率对银行系统有一些负面影响，但并没有像人们担心的那样严重。 6park.com
因此，尽管负利率暂时退场，但几乎肯定会被留在央行的工具箱里，以防类似的紧急情况再次发生，也许是作为一种永远不必使用的威慑存在。 6park.comSo while central bankers are retiring negative rates for now, they will almost certainly keep them in the toolbox in case a similar emergency recurs—perhaps as a threat that never has to be used. 6park.com
支持负利率的前日本央行政策委员原田泰(Yutaka Harada)表示，如果市况需要，“我们总是可以选择重启负利率”。 6park.comIf market conditions demand it, “we always have that option of going back to minus,” said Yutaka Harada, a former Bank of Japan policy board member who backed negative rates. 6park.com
日本央行周二取消了-0.1%的负政策利率，并将新的短期利率目标区间设定为0%-0.1%。日本央行还结束了自2008年全球金融危机以来采取的大部分非常规政策，停止购买股票，并取消了长期国债收益率目标。 6park.comThe Bank of Japan on Tuesday eliminated its negative policy rate of minus 0.1% and set a new short-term interest-rate target range of 0% to 0.1%. It also ended most of the unconventional policies it had adopted since the 2008 global financial crisis, halting purchases of stocks and scrapping a target for long-term government bond yields. 6park.com
日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)说：“非常规货币宽松政策已经结束。” 6park.com“Extraordinary easing is over,” said BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda. 6park.com
负利率政策下，存款的价值逐年下降。例如，若利率为-0.1%，100美元存款一年后只值99.9美元。在实际操作中，商业银行在央行的存款可以实行负利率，但商业银行不愿将负利率转嫁给自己的客户。 6park.comA negative interest rate means that each year a deposit is worth less. For example, a $100 deposit with a 0.1% negative rate would be worth $99.90 after a year. In practice, negative rates could be imposed on commercial-bank deposits at the central bank, but commercial banks were reluctant to pass negative rates on to their own customers. 6park.com
普通储户可以从银行提走现金，藏在床垫下，来避免负利率影响。但央行官员们意识到，他们的商业银行储户很难找到足够大的床垫来安全地藏起数以十亿计的欧元或克朗。央行的这些银行储户可能不得不支付利息，而不是赚取利息。 6park.comRegular depositors can avoid negative rates by withdrawing their cash from the bank and storing it under a mattress. But central bankers realized that their depositors—commercial banks—couldn’t easily find mattresses big enough to hide billions of euros or kroner safely. Those depositor banks could be made to pay interest instead of earning it. 6park.com
2012年，丹麦央行对商业银行的存款实行负利率，随后欧洲央行于2014年、日本央行于2016年初以及瑞典和瑞士也相继实行了负利率。 6park.comIn 2012, Denmark’s central bank imposed negative rates on deposits held by commercial banks, followed by the European Central Bank in 2014 and the Bank of Japan in early 2016, as well as Sweden and Switzerland. 6park.com
据国际货币基金组织(IMF)称，从理论上讲，负利率政策“将通过与传统降息相同的渠道支持经济活动和通货膨胀”。该政策全面降低利率，使企业更容易借贷和支出。这应会促进总体需求并引发通货膨胀。 6park.comIn theory, according to the International Monetary Fund, a negative-rate policy “supports economic activity and inflation through the same channels as conventional interest rate cuts.” The policy pulls down interest rates across the board and makes it easier for businesses to borrow and spend. That should boost overall demand and trigger inflation.
即使实施负利率后，日本经济仍然低迷，通胀低于目标。 Did the theory work in practice? 6park.com
这个理论在实践中奏效了吗？ 6park.com
即使有效果，也不是很明显。欧洲和日本的经济在实施负利率之后依然乏善可陈，通胀率仍低于目标。 6park.comThe effects, if any, weren’t obvious. Economies in Europe and Japan remained lackluster with below-target inflation even after negative rates. 6park.com
苏黎世研究机构KOF Swiss Economic Institute的央行学者Hugo van Buggenum说：“有研究发现，的确有一些额外的授信。也有研究发现，实际上是减少了。” 6park.com“There are some studies that find, yes, there’s some additional credit extension. There are other studies that find there’s actually less,” said Hugo van Buggenum, a central-bank scholar at KOF Swiss Economic Institute in Zurich. 6park.com
美国银行(Bank of America)驻东京的经济学家Izumi Devalier说，在需求不足和悲观情绪笼罩的经济体中，轻微的负利率（比如日本-0.1%的利率）与零利率之间的差别不大，不足以从根本上改变人们的预期。 6park.comIzumi Devalier, an economist at Bank of America in Tokyo, said a slightly negative rate—minus 0.1% in Japan’s case—wasn’t different enough from zero to fundamentally change expectations in economies burdened by inadequate demand and pessimism.
“The fiscal side is more important,” she said, pointing to big government spending programs in the early days of the pandemic that stimulated growth. 6park.com 6park.com去年秋天，van Buggenum与他人合作撰写了一篇美联储工作论文，指出负利率背后的理论存在缺陷。这些作者发现，由于惯例或法规使得商业银行难以对存款采取负利率，央行的负利率有损于银行系统的健康。 6park.comLast fall, van Buggenum co-wrote a Federal Reserve working paper suggesting that the theory behind negative rates was flawed. Because customs or regulations make it hard for commercial banks to charge negative interest on deposits, central banks’ negative rates undermine the banking system’s health, the authors found. 6park.com
“财政方面更为重要，”她说，并提到了新冠疫情初期的大型政府支出计划刺激了经济增长。 6park.com
一个意想不到的不利影响是，负利率对公众心理造成冲击。在日本，大量带有“负”字的头条新闻营造了一种人们的钱包即将受到重创的印象。 6park.comAn unwelcome surprise was the way negative rates hit public psychology. In Japan, a plethora of headlines with the word “minus” left the impression people were about to take a hit to the wallet. 6park.com 6park.com“普通人对货币政策并不很感兴趣。但此前当我们实行负利率时，日间电视节目突然变得异常兴奋，人们都在谈论保险箱的销售情况。这不是好现象，"前日本央行政策委员原田泰回忆道。“由于公众的抵制，当时形成了一种氛围，金融机构也对抵制更有信心。” 6park.com“The average person isn’t much interested in monetary policy. But when we had minus rates, suddenly daytime TV was getting oddly excited and people were talking about how safes were selling. It wasn’t great,” recalled Harada, the former Bank of Japan board member. “Because the public was resisting it, an atmosphere developed in which financial institutions grew more confident about resisting.” 6park.com
尽管如此，IMF在2021年得出结论称，负利率政策很可能支持了经济增长。一些央行官员表示，负利率表明政策利率没有下限，有助于显示刺激经济的决心。 6park.comStill, the IMF concluded in 2021 that the negative-rate policy “has likely supported growth.” Some central bankers said that by showing there was no floor, negative rates were helpful in showing determination to stimulate the economy. 6park.com
美联储前主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在2020年的一篇博文中写道，虽然美联储从未采用过负利率，但还是应考虑对未来使用这一策略保持建设性的模糊态度。 6park.comWhile the Federal Reserve never adopted negative rates, “the Fed should also consider maintaining constructive ambiguity about the future use” of the tactic, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote in a 2020 blog post.
Negative rates in Japan initially didn’t push down the yen because other central banks had zero or negative rates. But in 2022, the Fed started raising rates, and soon after, European central banks including the ECB ended their negative-rate policies. 6park.com
日本的负利率最初并没有压低日圆，因为当时其他央行实行零利率或负利率。但在2022年，美联储开始加息，不久之后，包括欧洲央行在内的欧洲各央行也结束了负利率政策。 6park.com
这些地区的利率与日本负利率之间的差距不断扩大，促使投资者将资金转向美元和欧元，日圆汇率因此跌至30年低点。 6park.comNegative rates in Japan initially didn’t push down the yen because other central banks had zero or negative rates. But in 2022, the Fed started raising rates, and soon after, European central banks including the ECB ended their negative-rate policies. 6park.com
日本的食品和燃料进口商将上涨的成本转嫁给了消费者。丰田(Toyota)等出口商从海外赚取的美元得以兑换成更多日圆，这些公司在日本制造的产品在全球市场上变得更具成本竞争力。 6park.comJapanese importers of food and fuel passed on the higher costs to consumers. Exporters such as Toyota brought in more yen from the dollars they made overseas, and their made-in-Japan products became more cost-competitive on global markets. 6park.com
今年，日本许多公司用丰厚的利润给员工加薪5%以上。在进口价格上涨的推动下，日本通胀率现在高于2%。 6park.comThis year, many companies in Japan are using their fat profits to give raises of more than 5% to workers. Inflation, pushed up by import prices, is running above 2%. 6park.com
这足以让日本央行结束负利率政策。 6park.comThat was justification enough for the Bank of Japan to end its negative-interest-rate policy. 6park.com
负利率政策在一段时间内可能不会重现，至少在欧洲和日本是这样。在主要经济体中，似乎只有中国显示出长期停滞的潜在迹象，如房地产泡沫破裂和需求长期不振。 6park.comIt might not be back for a while, at least in Europe and Japan. Among major economies, only China seems to display the potential signs of secular stagnation, such as a popped real-estate bubble and a chronic shortfall of demand. 6park.com 6park.com但只要经济再次停滞，负利率作为最后一招的吸引力就仍将存在。 6park.comBut whenever stagnation returns, the lure of negative rates as a last-ditch tool will remain.
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