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China’s Economy Has a New Problem: Its Job Market
中国周一公布的多项经济数据大多数向好，但失业率连续第三个月上升，逆转了近半年来稳步下降的势头。
失业率是中国最新公布的一系列经济数据中的一项，这些数据也显示中国工业增加值的增长。 China’s economy has a new problem: Rising unemployment. 6park.com 6park.com周一公布的新数据显示，中国失业率连续第三个月上升。官方公布的全国城镇调查失业率为5.3%，回升至去年7月份的水平，去年12月和今年1月的失业率均上升，逆转了近半年来稳步下降的势头。 6park.comJoblessness in China rose for the third straight month, according to new data published Monday. At 5.3%, the official jobless rate is back to where it was in July after increases in December and January reversed almost half a year of steady progress.
中国经济面临一个新问题：失业率上升。 6park.com
The rise in the unemployment rate was just one data point in a batch of new economic figures released in Beijing Monday. Most were positive: Industrial production rose handsomely in January and February compared with a year earlier, and investment poured into factories. 6park.com
失业率只是周一中国政府最新公布的一系列经济数据中的一项。这些数据大多数向好，包括1-2月的工业增加值同比显着增长，投资涌入工厂。 6park.com
经济学家表示，这些数据表明，经济正受益于政府的温和刺激，但要确保经济持久复苏，还需要更多的刺激。 6park.comEconomists said the data suggest the economy is benefiting from modest government stimulus but that more will be needed to ensure a durable recovery. 6park.com
野村(Nomura)驻香港首席中国经济学家陆挺说，现在还不是满足于成绩的时候。 6park.com“Now is not the time for complacency,” said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong. 6park.com
在失业率上升的同时，有证据表明中国的平均工作时间在减少，经济学家通常将此解读为未充分就业或人们的工作远未发挥其潜力的迹象。 6park.comThe pickup in unemployment comes alongside evidence of a decline in average working hours in China, which economists often interpret as a sign that people are underemployed, or working well below their potential. 6park.com 6park.com长期以来青年失业问题一直令人担忧，去年6月份青年失业率上升至超过21%。随后中国国家统计局停止公布16至24岁人群的失业数据，理由是需要解决统计方法上的问题。1月份，国家统计局开始公布采用新统计方法的青年失业率数据，显示去年12月份青年失业率略低于15%。周一国家统计局发言人表示，不会在每月公布整体失业率数据时公布新的青年失业率指标，而是在两到三天后在其网站上公布。 6park.comA longstanding concern has been youth unemployment, which rose in June to more than 21%. China’s statistics agency stopped publishing data for joblessness among 16- to 24-year-olds soon after, citing methodological issues it wanted to iron out. It began publishing a new version in January, which put youth unemployment at just under 15% in December. On Monday, a spokesman for the agency said it won’t publish the new rate alongside the broader measure of unemployment each month but will release it on its website two to three days later. 6park.com
所有这些劳动力市场信号显示出中国经济的薄弱环节，眼下整体经济正在受益于政府对制造业的支持，但消费低迷和房地产持续下滑仍在拖累经济。 6park.comTogether, these labor-market signals point to pockets of weakness in China’s economy, which is feeling the benefits of government support for manufacturing but continues to wrestle with subdued consumption and a drawn-out property slump. 6park.com
周一的一系列数据凸显了这种分化，数据显示，1-2月的社会消费品零售总额增速放缓，房地产开发投资萎缩，而工业产值和建筑、工厂及其他固定资产投资实现增长。 6park.comMonday’s flurry of data reinforced that split, with figures showing retail-sales growth slowed in January and February and property investment shrank, while industrial production and investment in buildings, factories and other fixed assets rose. 6park.com
最新的失业数据“当然令人担忧”，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)驻新加坡的中国经济主管Julian Evans-Pritchard表示。“虽然今天公布的数据整体上还算不错，但很明显国内消费依然疲软，而经济的改善主要是由出口和财政支持的政府投资推动的。” 6park.comThe latest unemployment figure is “definitely a concern,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. “While the data published today were decent overall, it’s clear that the domestic consumer remains weak and the improvement is largely being driven by exports and state investment funded by fiscal support.” 6park.com
中国经济2023年增长5.2%，以中国的标准来看增幅不高，中国领导人在本月早些时候的一场年度会议上将2024年的经济增长目标设定在5%左右。 6park.comChina’s economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, a modest result by China’s standards, and Chinese leaders at an annual gathering earlier this month set a growth target of 5% for 2024. 6park.com
许多经济学家认为这一目标有些高。中国经济去年的增长得益于2022年基数较低。2022年，包括上海在内的大城市因新冠疫情实施了封控，导致经济增长急剧放缓。去年中国经济也受益于中国政府取消严厉的新冠疫情管控措施后各行业的恢复，但这种提振作用在2024年不会重现。 6park.comMany economists consider that ambitious. Last year’s performance was helped by a flattering comparison with 2022, when growth slowed sharply as China battled Covid-19 with lockdowns of major cities including Shanghai. The economy also benefited from reopening after Beijing ditched its draconian Covid-19 controls, a boost that won’t be repeated in 2024. 6park.com 6park.com房地产仍然是中国经济增长的最大拖累因素。房地产开发投资和建设曾占到中国经济年度产出的四分之一或更多，但现在新建筑工程已经大幅减少，销售出现大幅下降，房价也在下跌。 6park.comReal estate remains the biggest drag on Chinese growth. Real-estate investment and construction once accounted for a quarter or more of annual economic output in China, but now new building work has dried up, sales have cratered and prices are sliding. 6park.com
周一的数据显示，1-2月的新建住宅销售额同比大幅下降32.7%，较2023年全年6%的降幅急剧扩大。1-2月的新建住宅销售面积同比下降24.8%，房地产开发商的房屋新开工面积下降29.7%。 6park.comNew-home sales by value plunged 32.7% in the January to February period from a year earlier, according to Monday’s data, down sharply from the 6% drop recorded for 2023 as a whole. New-home sales by floor area fell 25% on year, while new construction starts by property developers dropped 29.7%. 6park.com
房地产市场低迷反过来又拖累了消费，在房价和销售下挫的情况下，家庭选择增加储蓄、减少支出，从而使消费没能达到对疫情后水平的乐观预期。1-2月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.5%，成绩也还不错，但不及去年12月7.4%的同比涨幅。 6park.comThe real-estate slump in turn is dragging on consumption, which has fallen short of buoyant postpandemic expectations as households choose to save more and spend less amid sinking home prices and sales. Retail sales in January and February rose 5.5% on the year, a decent result but short of the 7.4% annual rise recorded in December. 6park.com
中国的统计机构通常会将1月和2月的数据合并在一起，以消除春节假期造成的失真；春节期间许多企业都会停工，劳动者也会离开大城市与家人团聚。 6park.comChina’s statistics agency typically bundles January and February together to smooth out distortions from the holidays around Lunar New Year, when many businesses bring down the shutters and workers leave big cities to spend time with their families. 6park.com
中国官员一直没有采取过去那种大手笔的刺激政策来应对经济挑战，他们担心这样的举措可能会在房地产市场重新引发狂热。 6park.comChinese officials have resisted responding to the economy’s challenges with the kind of big-ticket stimulus policies they have reached for in the past, fearful that such moves might reignite a property-market frenzy. 6park.com
他们正将资金投入制造业。2024年前两个月，民间投资仅增长了0.4%，但在政府资金的推动下，全国固定资产投资同比增长4.2%。数据显示，高技术产业投资同比增长9.4%，其中高技术制造业和高技术服务业投资分别增长10.0%、7.8%。 6park.comInstead, they are funneling money to manufacturing. Private-sector investment rose just 0.4% in the first two months of 2024, but overall investment leapt 4.2%, powered by government cash. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and services rose 10%, data show. 6park.com 6park.com中国政府希望，随着经济摆脱对房地产的过度依赖，加大力度提升制造业实力将推动经济增长。然而，尽管中国在可再生能源设备和汽车（尤其是电动汽车）等领域取得了快速成功，但通过向制造业提供贴息贷款和压低价格来提高出口竞争力的做法，却加剧了与其他国家的贸易紧张关系。 6park.comThe hope is that doubling down on China’s manufacturing prowess will propel economic growth as the economy weans itself off an overreliance on property. Yet while China is achieving rapid success in fields such as renewable-energy equipment and autos, especially electric vehicles, its focus on export competitiveness through subsidized loans to industry and knockdown prices is stoking trade tensions with other countries. 6park.com
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席中国经济学家卢姿蕙(Louise Loo)说，失业率上升表明，虽然企业正在政府的帮助下提高产能，但它们没有看到足够的需求来证明有理由雇佣更多的员工。她说，如果中国经济充分发挥潜力，她估计失业率会在4%左右。 6park.comLouise Loo, lead China economist at Oxford Economics, said the rise in unemployment suggests that while firms are ramping up capacity thanks to government help, they don’t see enough demand to justify taking on more staff. She said she estimates unemployment in China would be around 4% if the economy was operating at full potential. 6park.com
“我认为这是需求疲软的一个症状，”她表示。 6park.com“I see this as a symptom of demand weakness,” she said.
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