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China’s bumper steel exports fuel oversupply concerns 房地产危机造成中国国内钢材需求低迷，政府尚未出台有力的刺激措施，导致中国钢企将产品折价出口。
Shipments at eight-year high as domestic property crisis and lack of stimulus encourage external sales. 6park.com
中国钢材出口正处于8年高位，眼下房地产危机减少了这个全球第二大经济体的国内消费，并加剧了人们对多个行业全球供应过剩的担忧。 6park.com 6park.comIn the first two months of this year, Chinese exports increased 32.6 per cent against a year earlier to 15.9mn tonnes, the highest since 2016 for the period, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics. 6park.com根据中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)的数据，今年头两个月，中国钢材出口量同比增长32.6%，至1590万吨，为2016年以来同期的最高水平。 6park.com 6park.comAnalysts believe Chinese steel exports are set to match or exceed levels from last year, when exports rose to about 90mn tonnes — the highest level in seven years — as China struggles to stimulate its economy and nascent efforts to cut production look insufficient. 6park.com分析师们认为，中国钢铁出口将赶上或超过去年的水平。去年，由于中国难以刺激经济复苏，而最初的钢材减产努力似乎力度不够，导致中国钢材出口量升至约9000万吨，为7年来的最高水平。 6park.com 6park.com“I certainly expect to see stronger exports as a whole over the course of 2024 for China compared to last year, and that’s the trend we’ve been seeing for the past few years,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at ANZ Research in Sydney. 6park.com澳新银行(ANZ Research)驻悉尼高级大宗商品策略师丹尼尔•海因斯(Daniel Hynes)表示：“我预计中国2024年的整体出口将比去年更加强劲，肯定是这样，这也是我们在过去几年里看到的趋势。”
Chinese steel exports are at an eight-year high as a property crisis undermines domestic consumption in the world’s second-largest economy and fuels concerns of global oversupply across several industries. 6park.com
6park.comSteel is an important barometer of growth in China’s investment-intensive economy, which many fear is moving into oversupply in sectors ranging from cars to solar panels due to a weaker than expected recovery in domestic consumption following the pandemic. 6park.com中国经济是投资密集型的，钢材是衡量中国经济增长的重要晴雨表。许多人担心，由于疫情后国内消费复苏弱于预期，中国经济中从汽车到太阳能电池板等多个行业正陷入供应过剩。 6park.com 6park.comThe country makes about 55 per cent of the world’s steel, so even a small increase in exports can lead to price pressures in world markets, analysts said. The last time China’s steel exports were this high was during an economic slowdown from 2015 to 2016. 6park.com分析师们表示，中国的钢材产量约占全球的55%，因此即使出口小幅增加，也可能对全球市场造成价格压力。上一次中国钢材出口达到如此高的水平是在2015年至2016年那次经济放缓期间。 6park.com 6park.com“There’s too much steel in the world,” said Colin Richardson, head of steel at price reporting agency Argus Media. “Even with a pullback in China, there will be too much steel.” 6park.com“全球钢材过剩。”价格报告机构阿格斯传媒(Argus Media)钢铁业务主管科林•理查森(Colin Richardson)表示，“即使中国的产量有所回落，钢材还是太多。” 6park.com 6park.comThe rising projections for China’s exports follow the annual meetings of its rubber-stamp parliament and affiliated political advisory body, during which the government announced a less aggressive than expected stimulus programme. 6park.com在外界预测中国钢材出口将上升之前不久，中国政府在全国人民代表大会会议上向这个“橡皮图章”议会作报告，宣布了一项力度低于预期的刺激计划。 6park.com 6park.comTomas Gutierrez, Asia editor at Kallanish Commodities, said following the meetings, known as the “Two Sessions”, Chinese steel companies began offering export contracts at significant discounts. 6park.com媒体机构——卡兰尼什大宗商品(Kallanish Commodities)的亚洲编辑托马斯•古铁雷斯(Tomas Gutierrez)表示，在中国召开“两会”后，中国钢铁企业开始在出口报价中报出折让幅度很大的价格。 6park.com 6park.com“Our initial expectations were that exports might moderate this year if the real estate market stabilised,” he said. But with property still slumping, “it seems certain right now that exports will be strong”. 6park.com他表示，“我们最初的预期是，如果房地产市场企稳，今年（中国钢材）出口可能会放缓”。但由于房地产市场仍萎靡不振，“目前看来，（钢材）出口看上去肯定将会强劲增长”。 6park.com 6park.comThe weaker outlook has also hit iron ore prices, said Harry Murphy Cruise, assistant director and economist at Moody’s Analytics. 6park.com穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)副总监兼经济学家哈里•墨菲•克鲁斯(Harry Murphy Cruise)表示，前景趋弱也打击了铁矿石价格。 6park.com 6park.com“The lack of meaningful stimulus coming out of last week’s Two Sessions has dented the construction pipeline for this year, pushing iron ore prices down to just a smidgen above $100 a tonne, its lowest since August 2023.” 6park.com“上周的‘两会’没有出台有意义的刺激措施，这弱化了今年的施工建设活跃度，推动铁矿石价格跌至每吨略高于100美元的水平，为2023年8月以来的最低水平。” 6park.comAside from weaker domestic demand in China, ANZ’s Hynes said easier monetary policy in developed markets, expected to come later in the year, would provide an external driver for the country’s steel exports. 6park.com澳新银行的海因斯表示，除了中国国内需求走弱之外，发达市场预计将在今年晚些时候出台的宽松货币政策，将为中国钢材出口提供一个外部推动力。 6park.com 6park.comAnalysts at BMO expect Chinese exports of 75mn-80mn tonnes of steel this year, as production remains steady despite the weak economy. Gutierrez said 2024 exports could match his estimate for last year of 94.5mn tonnes. 6park.com满地可银行(BMO)分析师预计，中国今年将出口7500万至8000万吨钢材——尽管中国经济疲软，但钢材生产仍保持稳定。古铁雷斯表示，2024年中国的钢材出口量可能达到9450万吨，跟他对去年的估计相同。 6park.com 6park.comColin Hamilton, commodities analyst at BMO, said China was channelling steel to overseas infrastructure projects in developing markets that it often finances and constructs itself, such as those under its Belt and Road Initiative. 6park.com满地可银行大宗商品分析师科林•汉密尔顿(Colin Hamilton)表示，中国正在向海外发展中市场的基础设施项目输送钢材，这些项目往往由中国自己出资和建设，比如“一带一路”倡议(Belt and Road Initiative)下的项目。 6park.com 6park.com“Before it was purely economic to try to export steel to the rest of the world,” said Hamilton. “This time around has been more geopolitical and strategic, garnering influence with the global south through steel-intensive investment.” 6park.com“以前，向世界其他地方出口钢材纯粹是出于经济考虑。”汉密尔顿说，“这一次更多是出于地缘政治和战略方面的考虑，通过钢材密集型投资获取对全球南方(Global South)的影响力。” 6park.com 6park.comWestern producers are better protected from the impact of rising Chinese exports than they were in 2016, said some analysts, largely thanks to tariffs and other trade barriers targeting Chinese imports, as well as subsidies for green steel. 6park.com一些分析师表示，与2016年相比，今天的西方生产商面对中国出口增长享有更好的保护，这在很大程度上要归功于西方针对中国产品的关税和其他贸易壁垒，以及对绿色钢铁的补贴。 6park.com 6park.comBut analysts said Chinese steel was still finding its way into western markets through Asian nations such as India, Japan and Vietnam importing cheap raw materials from China and then selling them to Europe as hot rolled coil or other steel products. 6park.com但分析师表示，中国钢材仍然有办法进入西方市场——取道印度、日本和越南等亚洲国家，这些国家从中国进口廉价原材料，加工成热轧卷板或其他钢材品种销往欧洲。
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