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Attack on Russian Concert Hall Threatens Putin’s Strongman Image
俄罗斯宣布3月24日为全国哀悼日，遇袭的音乐厅是俄罗斯最有名的娱乐场所之一，这里发生的血腥袭击事件有可能破坏普京精心打造的强人形象。
周日，在俄罗斯，民众哀悼莫斯科郊外音乐厅恐怖袭击事件的受害者。 Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed American warnings of an imminent terrorist attack and urged leaders of the country’s security services to focus on catching Ukrainian spies instead. 6park.com 6park.com仅仅三天后，伊斯兰国(Islamic State)的枪手就闯入莫斯科郊外的一个音乐厅疯狂扫射，造成130多人死亡，这是俄罗斯数十年来遭遇的最致命的恐怖袭击事件。 6park.comThree days later, Islamic State gunmen rampaged through a concert hall outside Moscow, killing more than 130 people in the deadliest episode of terrorism in Russia in decades. 6park.com
俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)上周未理会美国发出的有关俄罗斯即将发生恐怖袭击的警告，并敦促俄罗斯安全部门的领导人集中精力抓捕乌克兰间谍。 6park.com
俄罗斯把3月24日（周日）定为全国哀悼日，遇袭的音乐厅是俄罗斯最有名的娱乐场所之一，这里发生的血腥袭击事件有可能破坏普京精心打造的强人形象，并引发人们质疑他所建立的专制国家是否有能力如承诺的那样保障俄罗斯人民的安全。 6park.comAs Russia marked a national day of mourning on Sunday, the bloody assault on one of the nation’s best-known entertainment venues threatened to undermine Putin’s carefully cultivated strongman image and raised questions about the ability of the authoritarian state he has built to deliver on its promise of security for the Russian people. 6park.com
在俄罗斯对邻国乌克兰发动代价高昂的消耗战，并难以阻止乌克兰军队打击俄罗斯境内纵深目标的情况下，恐怖袭击带来了新的挑战。乌克兰最近已对俄罗斯境内的炼油厂发动了一系列袭击，导致生产受阻。 6park.comIt is a challenge that comes as Russia wages a costly war of attrition against neighboring Ukraine and struggles to prevent Ukrainian forces from striking targets deep inside Russian territory. Kyiv recently has managed a series of hits on oil refineries across Russia, disrupting production. 6park.com
伊斯兰恐怖主义的卷土重来也给克里姆林宫带来挑战，因为伊斯兰恐袭与俄罗斯在宣传中展示的世界观相悖，在政府宣传中，俄罗斯与发展中国家和穆斯林世界结成联盟，正在与以美国为首的西方国家展开关乎存亡的斗争。 6park.comThe return of Islamist terrorism is also a challenge for the Kremlin because it is at odds with the vision of the world presented in Russian propaganda—that Russia, in an alliance with developing countries and the Muslim world, is waging an existential struggle against the American-led West.
周日，俄罗斯总统普京点燃了一支蜡烛，以纪念恐怖袭击事件中的受害者。 On Sunday, Russians brought flowers to impromptu memorials in cities and towns across the country. Putin, wearing black, was shown on state television lighting candles in memory of the victims in an ornate Orthodox chapel. Meanwhile, rescue teams sifted through the rubble at the Crocus City Hall, trying to find any remaining bodies of those who died in the attack and ensuing fire. 6park.com
周日在俄罗斯各地的城镇里，人们拿着鲜花来到临时设立的纪念地点表示哀悼。俄罗斯国家电视台播放了身穿黑色衣服的普京在一座华丽的东正教教堂点燃蜡烛悼念遇难者的画面。与此同时，救援队继续在克罗库斯城音乐厅的废墟中搜寻，试图找到在袭击和随后的火灾中遇难的人员遗体。 6park.com
在普京1999年12月正式出任俄罗斯总统之前，车臣伊斯兰教徒发动的一系列恐怖袭击曾震惊整个俄罗斯。普京发出了着名的“把恐怖分子淹死在马桶里”的誓言，这表明他将摒弃法律程式，大力追捕武装分子并恢复俄罗斯的安全。 6park.comBefore Putin assumed power in December 1999, Russia was rocked by terrorist attacks blamed on Chechen Islamists. Putin famously pledged to “whack them in their outhouses”—signaling that he would dispense with legal niceties to hunt down militants and restore security. 6park.com
20世纪90年代末和21世纪初的恐怖主义活动加强了普京的统治，俄罗斯民众呼求国家采取行动恢复法律和秩序。那时候，俄罗斯自由反对派领导人和调查记者曾指责俄罗斯联邦安全局(FSB)策划了一些爆炸事件，借此加强普京对权力的掌控。 6park.comThe terrorism of the late 1990s and early 2000s strengthened Putin’s rule, with Russians clamoring for action to restore law and order. Russian liberal opposition leaders and investigative journalists at the time accused the Federal Security Service, or FSB, of orchestrating some of the bombings to help it tighten Putin’s grip on power. 6park.com
目前还不清楚上周五对克罗库斯城音乐厅的袭击将在俄罗斯国内政坛产生怎样的影响。普京试图将这次袭击与乌克兰联系起来，基辅方面的官员表示，他们担心普京会以此为由，投入更多的人力和财力打这场战争。伊斯兰国(Islamic State)声称发动了这次袭击。 6park.comIt is unclear how Friday’s attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue will ripple through Russia’s domestic politics. Putin has sought to connect the attack—claimed by Islamic State—to Ukraine, and officials in Kyiv say they fear he will use it as a justification to devote even more men and money to the war. 6park.com
“人们认为这意味着普京没有兑现承诺；他曾承诺和平与稳定，而现在和平与稳定在哪里？”前普京演讲稿撰写人、现普京政权的反对者Abbas Gallyamov说。“如果真的是伊斯兰国，那么你的整个外交政策就毫无价值了——这就是为什么他们极力把责任推给乌克兰。” 6park.com“This is perceived as Putin’s failure to deliver—he had come with promises of peace and stability, and where is that peace and stability now?” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter who has since become an opponent of the regime. “If it’s indeed Islamic State, then your entire foreign policy is worthless—which is why they are trying so hard to pin blame on Ukraine.” 6park.com
普京没有明确指责乌克兰牵涉上周五的袭击。他说，疑似恐怖分子正逃往乌克兰，那里的边境为他们打开了“一扇窗”。 6park.comPutin didn’t explicitly accuse Ukraine of involvement in Friday’s attack. He said suspected terrorists were fleeing toward Ukraine where “a window” had been opened for them at the border. 6park.com
俄罗斯其他一些高级官员驳斥了伊斯兰国对此次袭击负责的声明，并公开对基辅方面以报复行动相威胁。乌克兰和西方国家政府则予以驳斥，认为俄罗斯关于乌克兰牵涉上周五袭击的暗示是恶意宣传。 6park.comOther senior Russian officials have dismissed Islamic State’s claim of responsibility and openly threatened Kyiv with retribution. Ukraine and Western governments have rejected as malicious propaganda Russian suggestions of a Ukrainian role in Friday’s attack. 6park.com
甚至在俄罗斯电视台上，一些专家也公开怀疑乌克兰参与其中的说法。他们反而提出了令人不安的问题：俄罗斯安全部门曾以极快的速度平息了反对乌克兰战争的抗议活动，但为何却花了一个多小时才对克罗库斯袭击事件做出反应？ 6park.comEven on Russian television, some experts publicly doubted the claims of Ukrainian involvement. They instead raised uncomfortable questions about why Russian security services, which have acted with lightning speed to crush protests against the war in Ukraine, took more than an hour to respond to the Crocus attack.
周日，圣彼得堡的人们搭建了一处临时设立的纪念地点。 “What could Ukraine gain from this terror attack is not very evident,” political analyst Mikhail Vinogradov wondered on RBK TV on Saturday. “We need to redefine the theme of security,” he said. “The priority of law enforcement has been mostly the public figures who are critical… Terrorism was defined as criticism of the Russian authorities and Russian policies.” 6park.com
“乌克兰从这次恐怖袭击能得到的好处并不十分明显，”政治分析人士Mikhail Vinogradov上周六在RBK TV表示。“我们需要重新定义安全主题，”他说。“执法部门的重点主要是那些持批评态度的公众人物……恐怖主义被定义为对俄罗斯当局和俄罗斯政策的批评。” 6park.com
在俄罗斯的社交媒体和私下谈话中，人们的反应聚焦于普京近四分之一世纪的统治所建立系统的一些关键方面。 6park.comOn social media and in private conversations in Russia, reaction focused on some of the key aspects of the system created by Putin’s nearly quarter-century rule. 6park.com
一个问题是，在乌克兰的这场战争是否分散了俄罗斯执法和情报部门在反恐任务上投入的精力。 6park.comOne question was whether the war in Ukraine has distracted Russia’s law-enforcement and intelligence services from their antiterrorism mission.
6park.com虽然乌克兰发射了数百架无人机袭击俄罗斯境内的炼油厂、军用机场和其他目标，以回应莫斯科对乌克兰城市无情的导弹和无人机袭击，但乌克兰的这些袭击都没有造成大规模平民伤亡。 6park.comWhile Ukraine has launched hundreds of drones to strike oil refineries, military airfields and other targets in Russia, in response to Moscow’s relentless missile-and-drone campaign against Ukrainian cities, none of these Ukrainian attacks has resulted in mass civilian casualties. 6park.com
“也许FSB一心扑在乌克兰战争及其带来的危险上，没有注意到这一点，”驻荷兰的反恐和情报独立专家Grigorij Serscikov说。“他们捉襟见肘，在太多不同的“战线”上作战。 6park.com“Maybe the FSB was so preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and the dangers emanating from there that they somehow failed to see this,” said Grigorij Serscikov, an independent expert in antiterrorism and intelligence based in the Netherlands. “They’re stretched, battling on too many different” fronts.
救援队试图寻找在袭击中遇难的人员的遗体。 The war has also exacerbated Russia’s reliance on migrant workers from the Muslim-majority states of Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, as Russia’s economy has pivoted to a war footing that has pushed unemployment to a record low. Hundreds of thousands have found work in the defense industry. Others have been pulled into the military and sent to the trenches. 6park.com
战争还加剧了俄罗斯对来自中亚穆斯林占多数国家，特别是塔吉克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦的移民工人的依赖，在俄罗斯经济已转向战争状态之际，失业率已降至创纪录低点。 数十万人在国防业找到了工作。还有些人被拉入军队，送上战壕。 6park.com
据美国估计，已有30多万俄罗斯士兵在乌克兰受伤或丧生。 6park.comMore than 300,000 Russian soldiers have been injured or killed in Ukraine, according to U.S. estimates. 6park.com
据俄罗斯主管部门称，上周五的四名袭击者来自塔吉克斯坦。其中一些人几乎不会说俄语。 6park.comThe four attackers on Friday hailed from Tajikistan, according to Russian authorities. Some barely spoke Russian. 6park.com
虽然没有确切的统计数据，但中亚工人可以免签证来到俄罗斯，近年来已有数百万人在俄罗斯的主要城市定居，他们往往与俄罗斯社会基本隔绝，容易被犯罪团伙和伊斯兰教徒招募。 6park.comWhile exact statistics are unavailable, Central Asian workers can come to Russia visa-free and several million have settled in Russia’s main cities in recent years—often living largely separated from wider Russian society in conditions that leave them exposed to recruitment by criminal gangs and Islamists. 6park.com
据估计，穆斯林（移民和在俄罗斯出生的穆斯林）占俄罗斯全国人口的20%之多。 6park.comMuslims—migrants and those born in Russia—are estimated to make up as much as 20% of the country’s population. 6park.com
位于莫斯科的安全与国防智库Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies负责人Ruslan Pukhov说，上周五的袭击显示，“俄罗斯主管部门过去二十年实施的鼓励移民的政策存在风险”。“巨大的穆斯林飞地和移民社群已经形成，伊斯兰激进分子的爆发只是时间问题。” 6park.comFriday’s attack shows “the risks of the policy of encouraging immigration, which has been implemented by Russian authorities in the past two decades,” said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based security and defense think tank Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “Giant Muslim enclaves and diasporas have formed, and the outbursts of radical Islamists became just a question of time.” 6park.com
对移民的不满曾是俄罗斯民族主义者的主要关注点，如今已经在更广泛的社会中蔓延，尽管许多俄罗斯人承认国家对中亚劳动力的依赖程度太高，现在还不能突然改变策略。 6park.comDissatisfaction with immigration, which was once a major focus of Russian nationalists, has spread in the wider society, though many Russians recognize the country is far too dependent on Central Asian labor to change tack suddenly now. 6park.com
求职网站Superjob.ru的所有者Alexei Zakharov说：“我希望我们能在15年前阻止这些移民的到来，但现在的情况是，我们已经无能为力。” 6park.com“I wish we had stopped them from coming 15 years ago, but the current situation is such that there’s no longer anything we can do,” said Alexei Zakharov, the owner of the online job hunting site Superjob.ru. 6park.com
普京的主要承诺之一是遏制腐败，但克罗库斯枪击事件引发火灾造成大量民众遇难，这再次引起了人们关于持续腐败的讨论。 6park.comWhile one of Putin’s main promises has been to curb corruption, the huge death toll from the fire that erupted after the initial shooting attack on Crocus has renewed conversations about continuing graft.
许多音乐会的观众因在枪击事件后的火灾中吸入烟雾而死亡。 The vast hall burned to the ground, with many visitors dying of smoke inhalation after the four known assailants fled the premises and drove to the Bryansk region bordering Belarus and Ukraine. Many Russian analysts wondered whether this happened because construction and safety rules hadn’t been followed. 6park.com
在四名已知的袭击者逃离现场并驱车前往与白俄罗斯和乌克兰接壤的布良斯克地区后，偌大的克罗库斯城音乐厅付诸一炬，很多观众因吸入浓烟窒息死亡。许多俄罗斯分析人士怀疑这是否因为建筑和安全规则没有被遵守。 6park.com
克罗库斯城音乐厅的所有者、阿塞拜疆亿万富翁阿加拉罗夫(Aras Agalarov)告诉Russian TV，该音乐厅所有的消防喷淋设施、警报器和防火技术在火灾中都正常运行。他说：“所有系统都运行得很好。” 6park.comAras Agalarov, the Azerbaijan-based billionaire owner of Crocus, told Russian TV that all the sprinklers, alarms and fire-retardant technologies in the concert hall functioned properly during the fire. “All the systems worked very well,” he said. 6park.com
两年前，俄罗斯主要情报机构联邦安全局未能预测到乌克兰民众和军队抵御俄军进攻的意愿和能力，这是导致俄罗斯最初试图占领乌克兰的行动失败的原因之一。 6park.comTwo years ago, the FSB, Russia’s main intelligence agency, failed to predict the Ukrainian population’s and military’s willingness and ability to fend off a Russian attack, contributing to the failure of Russia’s initial attempt to take over the country. 6park.com
从那以后，俄联邦安全局一直重点监控公众对俄乌冲突的批评，无论是网上异议还是街头抗议。根据战时法律，任何对俄军的批评，例如暗示俄罗斯士兵对在布恰或马里乌波尔杀害乌克兰平民负责，都将受到监禁处罚。 6park.comSince then, the FSB has been focused on monitoring public criticism of the conflict, either online or in the streets. Under wartime legislation, any criticism of the Russian military—such as suggesting that Russian soldiers were responsible for killing Ukrainian civilians in Bucha or Mariupol—is subject to punishment with prison terms.
6park.com俄罗斯一些最广为人知的俄乌战争支持者曾遭遇几次高调暗杀，之后俄联邦安全局将注意力转向追捕据信为基辅军事情报机构工作的俄罗斯人和乌克兰人。俄联邦安全局还在国内积极追捕政治反对派。 6park.comFollowing several high-profile assassinations of some of Russia’s most public supporters of the war, the FSB turned its attention to pursuing Russians and Ukrainians believed to be working for Kyiv’s military intelligence. And it is zealously pursuing political opponents at home. 6park.com
前述智库的负责人Pukhov表示，这次恐怖袭击很可能会被用来进一步施加压力。 6park.com“The terror attack will very likely be used for turning the screws even further,” said Pukhov, the think-tank head.
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