Why China’s Middle Class Is Losing Its Confidence


中国新生一代中产阶层在人生的大部分时间里都认为经济繁荣是理所当然的。但房地产下滑、股市低迷和更广泛的经济衰退已迫使他们面对一个棘手的问题： 中国的繁荣期是否已经彻底结束？


中国民众正在减少支出，增加储蓄，远离高风险投资。

三年前，对Blake Xu来说，生活中的一切似乎都很顺利。 6park.com
Three years ago, everything seemed to be going right for Blake Xu. 6park.com
 
那时候，这位33岁的企业家和他的家庭已趁着中国房地产蓬勃发展的浪潮购置了多套房产。他的妻子当时正怀着他们的第一个孩子。他刚刚卖掉了一套住宅，并将几乎一半的卖房所得投入了中国股市。 6park.com
The 33-year-old entrepreneur and his family had built a portfolio of properties during China’s real-estate boom. His wife was expecting their first child. He had just sold an apartment, and put almost half of the proceeds into the stock market. 6park.com
 
但从那以后到现在，中国房地产市场进入了长达数年的低迷期，中国基准沪深300指数已跌去了约三分之一的市值，中国经济变得越来越脆弱，消费者信心萎靡不振，民营部门投资疲软，青年失业率居高不下。 6park.com
Since then, the property market has entered a yearslong downturn, the country’s benchmark CSI 300 stock index has lost around a third of its value and the economy has become increasingly vulnerable, suffering from moribund consumer confidence, weak private-sector investment and sky-high youth unemployment. 



Xu已经从中国股市撤出了几乎所有资金。他的下一步可能就是离开中国。住在上海的Xu说，我不知道未来的路在哪里；等孩子再大一点，我们打算送他出国，也许我们也会出国。对中国新生一代中产阶层而言，在他们人生的大部分时间里，他们都觉得经济繁荣是理所当然的。但房地产下滑、股市低迷和更广泛的经济衰退已迫使他们面对一个棘手的问题： 中国的繁荣期是否已经彻底结束？ 6park.com
Xu has already pulled almost all of his money out of China’s stock market. His next exit may be from China itself. 6park.com
“I don’t know where the future path lies,” said Xu, who lives in Shanghai. “Once our child grows a little older, we intend to send him abroad, and perhaps we will also go.” 6park.com
For most of their lives, China’s new generation of middle-class citizens could take a booming economy for granted. But the property rout, the stock market slump and the wider economic downturn have forced them to confront a difficult question: Are China’s boom years over for good?  6park.com
  
 
中国人正在减少支出，增加储蓄，远离高风险投资。中国央行的数据显示，截至2月份，国内家庭储蓄达到19.83万亿美元，创下历史最高纪录。消费者信心接近几十年来的最低水平。 6park.com
Chinese citizens are spending less, saving more and shying away from risky investments. Household savings in the country reached $19.83 trillion by February, the highest figure on record, according to data from the central bank. Consumer confidence is near its lowest level in decades. 6park.com
 
中国的城市居民和白领阶层越来越忧心忡忡，这对中国政府来说可能是个大问题。多年来，中国政府的正当性一直来自于在经济治理方面的良好声誉。现在，这一声誉渐渐开始遭到质疑。 6park.com
The increasing sense of nervousness among China’s city-dwellers and white-collar workers could be a major problem for Beijing. China’s government has for years derived legitimacy from its reputation for sound economic management. 6park.com
Now, that reputation looks increasingly shaky.

寻找离场策略

在前领导人邓小平删除了毛泽东思想中最激进的内容，并向全球贸易敞开了中国的大门之后，中国经济开始腾飞转型，30岁的Hugo Chen就出生在这一转型期的早期阶段。 6park.com
Hugo Chen, 30, was born during the early stages of China’s remarkable economic transformation, which came after former leader Deng Xiaoping rolled back the worst excesses of Maoism and opened the doors to global trade.  6park.com
  
Chen在富裕的沿海城市深圳长大，曾在英国攻读硕士学位。2017年，他回到中国从事金融工作，和许多中国人一样，他决定炒股。他还购买了债券，投资了一些保险产品。 6park.com
Chen, who was raised in the wealthy coastal city of Shenzhen, studied for a master’s degree in the U.K. He moved back to China in 2017 to work in finance and, like many Chinese citizens, decided to play the stock market. He also bought bonds and invested in insurance products.



但去年他做出了一个决定：不再投资中国股票。 6park.com
But last year, he made a decision: no more Chinese shares.  6park.com
   
银行家Chen曾为一家保险公司管理资金。他比大多数人更了解投资，他也更清楚，继续投资中国似乎不再是个明智选择了。 6park.com
Chen, a banker, had previously helped an insurance company manage its money. He knew more than most about investing—and China no longer seemed like a smart place to invest money. 6park.com
   
截至2023年底，沪深300指数已连续三年下跌。更糟糕的是，美国、日本和其他地方的股市已经飙升。这本该是属于中国的世纪，但中国的经济和股市却在跑输其他国家。 6park.com
By the end of 2023, the CSI 300 index had fallen for three years in a row. Even worse, stocks in the U.S., Japan and elsewhere had surged. It was supposed to be China’s century, but the economy and the stock market were losing ground to those in other countries. 6park.com
  
“变穷是一回事。在别人致富的同时自己却变穷，这又是另一码事，”Chen说。 6park.com
“Becoming poor is one thing. Becoming poor while others get rich is another,” said Chen.  6park.com
  
他将大部分投资转向购买美国股票的基金。 6park.com
He shifted most of his investments into funds that buy U.S. stocks. 6park.com
  
中国有超过2.2亿的散户投资者，这意味着股市的走势会对国民心理产生巨大影响。这些小投资者一度被称作赌徒。经历过去几年的低迷之后，他们缩减了投资，逐渐转向货币市场基金等更安全的资产。 6park.com
China has more than 220 million individual investors, meaning stock market moves can have a big impact on the national psyche. These small investors once had a reputation as gamblers. After the slump of the past few years, they have scaled back their bets and increasingly shifted to safer assets such as money-market funds. 6park.com
   
房地产行业对信心的损害更大。中国政府大约三年前启动的房地产去杠杆行动已演变成一场持续多年的危机，将数十家开发商推向了倒闭的边缘，中国经济增长的主要引擎之一因此受到冲击。 6park.com
The real-estate sector has done even more damage to confidence. What started as an attempt by Beijing to rein in excessive debt in the sector around three years ago has morphed into a multiyear crisis, pushing dozens of developers to the brink of collapse and pulling the rug out from under one of China’s main drivers of economic growth. 6park.com
 
2月份，中国最发达城市的二手房价格同比下跌6.3%，创下有记录以来最大单月同比跌幅。 6park.com
The price of secondhand homes in China’s most developed cities fell 6.3% in February compared with the same month last year—the biggest year-over-year decline on record.



前述企业家Xu又卖了一套房，他说这个过程非常痛苦。但他并不后悔。他说，手里有了这笔钱就可以灵活应对，如果情况变得更糟，他可以离开这个国家。 6park.com
Xu, the entrepreneur, sold a second property in a process he described as extremely painful. But he has no regrets: The money will give him the flexibility he needs to leave the country if things get worse, he said. 6park.com
  
“从情感上讲，我对这个国家抱持最好的希望，”Xu说。“但是，坦白讲，如果这个领导团队继续留任，我必须有一个退出策略，因为前景令人担忧。” 6park.com
“Emotionally, I hope for the best for this country,” said Xu. “However, if this team of leaders stays, to be frank, I have to have an exit strategy, as the outlook is worrisome.”  6park.com
 
让中国官员不安的正是这种情绪。尽管中国政府牢牢掌控着权力，但对公众情绪十分敏感。 6park.com
That is precisely the kind of sentiment that will unsettle officials in Beijing. Although China’s government keeps a tight grip on power, it is acutely sensitive to the public mood.  6park.com
 
中国民众有公开表达异见的历史，包括公开抗议银行和企业。北京方面至少容忍了一定程度的异见，前提是公民遵循一条首要原则：不要指责中央政府。 6park.com
China’s population has a history of public displays of dissent, including public protests against banks and companies. Beijing has tolerated at least a degree of dissent, as long as its citizens follow one overriding principle: Don’t blame the central government. 6park.com
 
但是，一些民众确实将当前的经济问题归咎于中国政府，称政府对互联网公司、课外教培、房地产行业的政策发生了180度大转弯，还实施了严格的新冠疫情防控措施，后者对中国民众的信心造成了持久的伤害。 6park.com
But some people in the country do blame Beijing for the current economic troubles, pointing to policy U-turns on internet companies, private education and real estate, and a strict approach to containing Covid-19 that has dealt lasting damage to confidence in the country. 6park.com
  
麻省理工学院(MIT)斯隆管理学院(Sloan School of Management)全球经济与管理学教授、威尔逊中心(Wilson Center)研究员黄亚生说，当前向低投资、高储蓄的转变助长了中国经济的恶性循环，也就是说，经济不景气会削弱信心水平，而反过来，信心不足又会加剧经济下滑。 6park.com
The shift toward low investment and high savings is fueling a vicious cycle, where the economic slump erodes confidence levels and, in turn, low confidence worsens the downturn, said Yasheng Huang, professor of global economics and management with MIT Sloan School of Management and a fellow at the Wilson Center.  6park.com
   
他说：“当一个社会形成了某种特定的心理，要想转变就不容易了。” 6park.com
“When a society settles on a particular psychology, it’s not easy to shift,” he said.

从希望到恐惧

现年37岁的Scarlett Hu还记得2014年回到中国的感觉。当时她刚从国外留学回来，在上海的奢侈品行业找到了一份工作。 6park.com
Scarlett Hu, 37, remembers how it felt to be back in China in 2014. She had just returned from studying abroad, and took a job in Shanghai’s luxury goods sector.
   6park.com
Hu说，当时，社会上的每个人都充满希望。周围弥漫着一种积极向上的氛围。Hu说，下班后他们出去放松时，相信明天会更好，今天就玩得开心点。 6park.com
“At that time everyone in the society was full of hope. There was this promising sentiment around,” said Hu. “When we went out to relax after work, we believed that tomorrow would be better and let’s have fun today.” 6park.com
  
Hu于2017年在上海买了一套公寓，并在2020年，也就是她儿子出生之前，开始购买投资股市的公募基金。她希望这笔钱能帮助支付儿子的教育费用。这在当时似乎是明智之举：彼时房地产市场欣欣向荣，股市接近创纪录高位，官方媒体高声唱多。 6park.com
Hu bought an apartment in Shanghai in 2017 and started buying mutual funds that invest in the stock market in 2020, before the birth of her son. She hoped the money would help pay for his education. At the time, it seemed like a smart bet: The real-estate market was booming, and stocks were nearing a record high, cheered on by China’s bullish state media.  6park.com
   
现在，她的公寓贬值了15%，她买的公募基金投资组合下跌了35%。 6park.com
Her apartment has now lost 15% of its value, and her mutual-fund portfolio is down 35%. 6park.com
  
“现在，我们谈论的是让未来更加确定的具体计划和措施，主要是增加安全感的各种办法。再也感觉不到那种闯劲了，”她说。 6park.com
“Now we talk about concrete plans and measures to secure a more certain future, focusing on ways to enhance our sense of security. You don’t feel that kind of ambition any more,” she said. 6park.com
  
中国政府已采取措施应对经济下滑，包括放宽面向房地产企业的贷款规定、降低借贷利率以及承诺解决地方政府的债务问题。但中国政府似乎不愿采取西方国家政府为应对新冠疫情所采取的直接刺激措施；当时西方国家直接向消费者发放现金的做法带动消费重新回到了正轨。 6park.com
China’s government has taken steps to tackle the downturn, including easing lending rules for battered real-estate firms, cutting borrowing rates and pledging to resolve the debt problems of local governments. But Beijing appears reluctant to adopt the sort of direct stimulus Western governments embraced in the wake of Covid-19, when direct payments to consumers helped get spending back on track. 6park.com
  
今年3月初，中国总理李强表示，中国政府2024年的经济增长目标是5%左右。最近经济领域也出现了一些改善的迹象。 6park.com
In early March, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said the government was targeting growth of around 5% for 2024, and there have been recent signs of improvement. 6park.com
   
但有经济学家认为，中国政府将很难实现这一目标，在中国的一些人士担心情况会变得更糟。 6park.com
But economists think Beijing will find it difficult to hit this growth target, and some people in the country worry that things are about to get worse. 6park.com
   
一名现年40岁驻北京的股票分析师说，去年8月，她所在的咨询公司倒闭，她也因此失去了工作。她有两个孩子需要照顾，丈夫的收入也不稳定，她预计未来的日子会更痛苦。 6park.com
A 40-year-old equity analyst based in Beijing said she lost her job last August when the consulting firm she worked for closed. She has two children to care for, her husband’s income is unstable and she is bracing herself for more pain to come. 6park.com
   
“每个人都在说，接下来的10年，一年会比一年糟，所以我们应该做好长期艰苦奋斗的准备，”她说。 6park.com
“Everyone is saying that this year might still be the best in the next decade, so we should be prepared for a long period of hardship,” she said.