The $27 Trillion Treasury Market Is Only Getting Bigger


不断扩容的美国国债市场、不同的买家和监管趋紧这些因素给市场带来风险。



全球规模最大、最重要的金融市场正在实现飞跃式增长。在华尔街，这让人感到很不安。 6park.com
The world’s largest, most-important financial market is growing by leaps and bounds. On Wall Street, that is making people nervous. 6park.com
    
美国国债的年发行量激增，自新冠疫情爆发以来几乎增长了一倍。2023年政府发售创纪录的23万亿美元国债。由于人们普遍预期，无论谁在11月的大选中获胜政府支出都将继续增加，因此几乎没有人认为这种势头会很快减退。 6park.com
Annual issuance of U.S. Treasurys has exploded, nearly doubling since the pandemic began. The government sold a record $23 trillion worth in 2023. And few think the spree is going to slow soon, given the widespread expectation that government spending will continue to rise regardless of who wins November’s elections.  6park.com
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过去，无论是科技股还是按揭抵押债券等市场，这种迅猛增长势头的结局往往都不太好。美国国债被认为是华尔街最安全、最容易交易的证券，许多人担心，美国国债市场的任何不稳定都可能迅速蔓延。 6park.com
Rapid growth in markets from tech stocks to mortgage bonds has ended badly in the past. Treasurys are considered the safest and easiest-to-trade securities on Wall Street, and many worry that any instability there could rapidly spread.  6park.com
   
市场这种扩容并不是令投资者感到不安的唯一问题：一些人还担心改变交易方式的新规则。新规可能有助于缓解压力，但也会造成不可预见的后果，比如2019年和2020年的现金短缺一度导致交易受阻，利率上升。 6park.com
The market’s growth isn’t the only thing troubling investors: Some are also concerned about new rules that are changing the way the trading works. That could help alleviate strains but also create unforeseen consequences, such as the cash shortages in 2019 and 2020 that snarled trading and boosted interest rates.   6park.com
   
“这些法规都无法解决美国国债日益增多的问题，”耶鲁大学金融稳定计划研究副主任Steven Kelly说。 6park.com
“None of these regulations solves the mounting pile of Treasury debt,” said Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale Program on Financial Stability.



债务越积越多

政府税收不足以应付开支时，财政部就会发行债券来填补缺口。财政部去年净筹集了2.4万亿美元来弥补赤字，这考虑到了必须发售多少债券来偿还到期债务。 6park.com
When the government doesn’t take in enough from taxes to fund its spending, the Treasury Department issues bonds to fill the gap. The agency raised a net $2.4 trillion last year to finance the deficit, taking into account what it had to sell to repay holders of maturing debt.



自2019年底以来，美国国债市场增长60%以上，达到27万亿美元。与2008-2009年金融危机之前相比规模扩大了约六倍。 6park.com
The Treasury market has grown more than 60% to $27 trillion since the end of 2019. It is roughly sixfold larger than before the 2008-09 financial crisis. 6park.com
   
“在和平时期的经济扩张中有近2万亿美元的赤字，市场要消化的债券规模很大，”保守派Manhattan Institute兼职研究员、曾协助疫情应对的前财政部高级顾问Stephen Miran说。 6park.com
“Running a nearly $2 trillion deficit during a peacetime economic expansion—that’s a lot of bonds for the market to absorb,” said Stephen Miran, an adjunct fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute and a former Treasury Department senior adviser who assisted with the Covid-19 response. 6park.com
   
美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预计，未来几年政府支出将继续攀升，人口老龄化将提高社会安全福利和联邦医疗保险等项目的成本。利息成本上升也会推动债券发行。 6park.com
The Congressional Budget Office anticipates government spending that continues to climb in the coming years, with an aging population raising the cost of programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Rising interest costs could also boost issuance.

不断变化的市场



去年秋天，不断增加的债券发行引发了市场动荡，促使美国财政部转向发售更多短期债券。短期国债（期限为一年或更短的债券）数额已上升到未偿债券的22.4%，高于为政府提供建议的借款委员会所设定的20%的建议上限。 6park.com
Mounting bond sales sparked market turmoil last fall, prompting the Treasury to shift toward selling more short-term debt. The amount of bills—those with maturities of one year or shorter—has risen to 22.4% of debt outstanding, above the recommended 20% limit set by the borrowing committee that advises the government. 6park.com
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此后，需求一直十分充足。投资者仍未要求为持有较长期国债提供额外补偿。所谓的期限溢价实际上是负的。 6park.com
Since then, demand has been more than adequate. Investors still aren’t requiring extra compensation to hold longer-term Treasurys. The so-called term premium is actually negative. 6park.com
  
美国国债需求保持稳健的一个原因是：替代投资品较少。许多公司都在新冠疫情导致利率接近于零的时期发行了长期债券，然后在美联储开始加息后放缓了借贷。住房抵押贷款支持证券市场目前几乎冻结，与此同时，在房价达到几十年来最贵水平的住房市场上，几乎没有美国人愿意搬家。 6park.com
One reason demand for Treasurys remains solid: fewer alternatives. Many companies issued long-term bonds when the pandemic sent rates near zero, then slowed borrowing when the Fed started raising them. The market for mortgage-backed securities is nearly frozen, with few Americans moving in the most expensive housing market in decades.

不同的买家

银行多年来一直在减少购买美国国债，因为受限于金融危机后出台的法规，而这些规定势将变得更加严格。对冲基金、货币市场基金和外国投资者现在是美国国债的主要买家。 6park.com
Banks have pared their buying of Treasurys for years, constrained by postcrisis regulations that are poised to get even more restrictive. Hedge funds, money-market funds and foreign investors are now America’s primary financiers. 6park.com
   
货币市场基金正获得创纪录的资金流入并大量买入短期美国国债。但货币市场基金按规定只能投资短债。 6park.com
Money-market funds are enjoying record inflows and scooping up short-term Treasurys in bulk. But they are mandated to only invest in bills.



在美联储的统计数据中，对冲基金与家庭被放在一起，但对冲基金已在很大程度上填补了美联储留下的购买缺口，美联储正在削减当初为扶助美国经济而累积起来的债券持有量。但至少有一项涉及美国国债和美国国债期货的火热交易让监管机构感到紧张。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)出台的新规可能会降低对冲基金的盈利能力，而对冲基金行业正在对此提起诉讼，并且各基金也已经开始撤出美国国债市场。 6park.com
Hedge funds—lumped in with households in Fed data—have mostly filled the gap left by the central bank, which is paring its holdings of bonds accumulated in its efforts to prop up the economy. But at least one popular trade involving Treasurys and Treasury futures has regulators on edge. New rules from the Securities and Exchange Commission are likely to reduce its profitability—the hedge-fund industry is suing, and funds are already pulling back.

海外投资者的情况如何呢？

虽然外国投资者一直在稳步购买美国国债，但美元走强和其他地方高质量债券供应的增加可能会减缓美国国债的购买速度。外国投资者持有的美国国债数额已降至未偿还美国国债总量的四分之一以下，相比之下，在2015年，外国投资者持有的美国国债占到未偿还美国国债总量的三分之一以上。 6park.com
While foreign investors have steadily bought Treasurys, a strong dollar and growing supply of high-quality bonds elsewhere could slow purchases. Foreign holdings have declined below one-quarter of outstanding debt, after sitting at more than one-third in 2015.



美元走强并没有对日本投资者产生多大阻碍。多年来，日本的利率一直低于零，因此日本投资者一直在海外寻求收益，他们最近持有的美国国债规模已增至1.2万亿美元。日本在2019年超过中国成为美国最大的海外债权人。 6park.com
Dollar strength hasn’t done much to deter Japanese investors. With rates below zero at home for years, they have hunted for yield overseas, recently increasing their Treasury holdings to $1.2 trillion. Japan surpassed China as America’s largest foreign creditor in 2019. 6park.com
   
日本央行上周将利率从负值区间上调，并取消了对长期日本国债收益率设定的上限。但分析师预计日本央行不会让日债收益率升得太高，以防止进入美国国债市场的资金大幅外流。 6park.com
The Bank of Japan this past week raised rates out of negative territory and nixed its cap on long-term bond yields. Analysts don’t expect Japan’s central bank to let yields drift too high, though, preventing major outflows from Treasurys.

监管趋严

与国债相关的市场混乱曾加剧了雷曼兄弟的倒闭和2020年3月的市场恐慌。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周表示，美联储希望避免发生类似2019年隔夜利率飙升所引发的入市干预。 6park.com
Disruptions in markets tied to government debt exacerbated both Lehman Brothers’ collapse and the March 2020 market panic. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this past week the central bank wanted to avoid interventions such as the one required by the 2019 surge in overnight rates.  6park.com
   
纽约梅隆银行(BNY Mellon)的市场结构主管Nate Wuerffel说：“美联储决策者希望避免再次发生类似2019年的事件，这已经深深印在了他们的脑海里。” 6park.com
“Fed policymakers want to avoid another episode like 2019—it’s seared in their brains,” said Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon.  6park.com
   
他说，即使只是一天的融资成本激增，也可能导致机构无法付款或出现现金短缺，从而引发违约。 6park.com
Even a one-day surge in funding costs can cause an institution to miss payments or be short on cash, which could lead to defaults, he said.  6park.com
   
美联储在疫情期间设立了后备资金，以缓冲潜在的市场压力。但即将出台的银行业新规可能会使金融机构的资金更加短缺。SEC正在制定新的保障措施。 6park.com
The Fed set up backstops during the Covid-19 pandemic to absorb potential market stress. But impending bank regulations could make capital scarcer among lenders. And the SEC is erecting new safeguards. 6park.com
   
这些措施包括强制更多与美国国债相关的交易通过一家中央结算中心来进行。这样就在每天数以万亿计美元的交易中安插一个中间机构，将有助于银行部分卸下监管合规方面的负担。在去年11月因一家中国的银行被黑客攻击而导致市场短期动荡之后，前述安排还能减轻对网络安全的担忧。不过，交易成本的增加可能会阻碍对冲基金继续购买美债，促使他们提起诉讼。 6park.com
Those include forcing more trades tied to Treasurys through a central clearinghouse. Inserting a middleman between the trillions of dollars changing hands daily would help banks offset regulatory burdens. Doing so should also mitigate cybersecurity concerns, after the November hack of a Chinese bank rattled short-term markets. Higher trading costs could discourage hedge funds from continuing to buy U.S. debt, however, prompting their lawsuit.  6park.com
  
美国财政部负责金融市场事务的助理部长Josh Frost说，监管机构的目标是改善日常交易环境和提高抗风险能力。他说：“我们希望在冲击来临时把对市场的影响降到最低。” 6park.com
Josh Frost, the Treasury Department’s assistant secretary for financial markets, said regulators aim to improve both daily conditions and resilience. “We want to minimize the impact on markets when a shock comes,” he said.

展望未来

一些人表示，美国财政部对市场的担忧是有办法解决的。 6park.com
Some say there is a workaround to Treasury market concerns. 6park.com
   
国际掉期业务及衍生投资工具协会(International Swaps and Derivatives Association)最近要求美联储重启一项疫情时期的政策。这项政策允许银行将美国国债和存放在美联储的存款排除在监管缓冲范围外，这个缓冲范围强制要求银行持有的资本占到贷款和其他资产的一定比例。这将让银行能为更多的美国债务提供融资，并在市场变得紧张时开放它们的资产负债表。 6park.com
The International Swaps and Derivatives Association trade group recently asked the Fed to revive a pandemic-era policy. It would allow banks to exclude Treasurys and deposits held at the central bank from a regulatory buffer that forces banks to hold capital as a percentage of loans and other assets. That would allow banks to finance more U.S. debt and open up their balance sheets when markets become strained.  6park.com
    
一些人担心，如果不解决美国不断攀升的债务问题，投资者持有的债券收益率将长期居高不下。战争、扩张性财政政策、去全球化和移民带来的通胀前景表明，利率将保持在比疫情爆发前更高的水平。 6park.com
Some worry that if the mounting pile of debt isn’t addressed, investors will be left with permanently higher bond yields. The prospect of inflation—from wars, expansionary fiscal policy, deglobalization and immigration—points to rates staying higher than before the pandemic. 6park.com
   
Miran说：“如果你是一位长期债券投资者，你需要扪心自问的一个最重要问题就是，利率将会居高不下多长时间。” 6park.com
“If you’re a long-term bond investor, the single most important question you need to ask is how long interest rates will remain elevated,” said Miran.