Big Tech’s Latest Obsession Is Finding Enough Energy


目前还不清楚全球数据中心的指数级增长究竟需要多少电力。但大多数人都认为，推动AI发展所需的数据中心将需要大量电力，这可能会给电网带来压力，并阻碍向清洁能源的过渡。


盖茨上周在休斯敦举行的2024年剑桥能源周上表示，电力是决定数据中心能否盈利的关键因素。

每年3月，数千名企业高管都会齐聚休斯顿市内一家酒店，达成石油和天然气交易，并就应对气候变化的计划展开讨论。今年能源行业旗舰会议有一个新的主题：人工智能。 6park.com
Every March, thousands of executives take over a downtown hotel here to reach oil and gas deals and haggle over plans to tackle climate change. This year, the dominant theme of the energy industry’s flagship conference was a new one: artificial intelligence. 6park.com
   
科技公司的高管在酒店大厅里漫步，寻找公用事业公司的高管和其他电力供应商。来自亚马逊(Amazon)和微软(Microsoft)的20多位高管在小组讨论会上发言。AI对电力的巨大需求是不可回避的话题，也是让人焦虑和兴奋并存的原因。 6park.com
Tech companies roamed the hotel’s halls in search of utility executives and other power providers. More than 20 executives from Amazon and Microsoft spoke on panels. The inescapable topic—and the cause of equal parts anxiety and excitement—was AI’s insatiable appetite for electricity. 6park.com
  
目前还不清楚全球数据中心的指数级增长究竟需要多少电力。但大多数人都认为，推动AI发展所需的数据中心将需要大量电力，这可能会给电网带来压力，并阻碍向清洁能源的过渡。 6park.com
It isn’t clear just how much electricity will be required to power an exponential increase in data centers worldwide. But most everyone agreed the data centers needed to advance AI will require so much power they could strain the power grid and stymie the transition to cleaner energy sources. 6park.com
   
Amazon Web Services工程副总裁Bill Vass说，全球每三天就会增加一个新的数据中心。微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)在会上表示，电力是决定数据中心能否盈利的关键因素，而AI消耗的电力是惊人的。 6park.com
Bill Vass, vice president of engineering at Amazon Web Services, said the world adds a new data center every three days. Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates told the conference that electricity is the key input for deciding whether a data center will be profitable and that the amount of power AI will consume is staggering. 6park.com
   
“你会说，‘哦，天哪，简直不可思议’，”盖茨说。 6park.com
“You go, ‘Oh, my God, this is going to be incredible,’” said Gates.


2024年剑桥能源周的与会者思考如何在向清洁能源过渡的过程中满足日益增长的电力需求。

在这次由标普全球(S&P Global)举办的名为剑桥能源周(CERAWeek)的会议上，虽然人们对AI需要大量电力这一点没有争议，但是不那么清楚的是，这些电力将从何而来。 6park.com
Though there was no dispute at the conference, called CERAWeek by S&P Global, that AI requires massive amounts of electricity, what was less clear was where it is going to come from. 6park.com
   
前美国能源部部长莫尼兹(Ernest Moniz)表示，支持AI的新建和拟建数据中心的规模让一些公用事业公司感到棘手，在风能和太阳能发电场的建设变得越来越困难的时候，如何才能使足够的发电能力上线。他说，公用事业公司将不得不更加倚重天然气、煤炭和核电厂，或许还要支持建设新的天然气发电厂，以帮助满足激增的需求。 6park.com
Former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said the size of new and proposed data centers to power AI has some utilities stumped as to how they are going to bring enough generation capacity online at a time when wind and solar farms are becoming more challenging to build. He said utilities will have to lean more heavily on natural gas, coal and nuclear plants, and perhaps support the construction of new gas plants to help meet spikes in demand.  6park.com
   
他说：“我们不可能在几年内新建100千兆瓦的可再生能源（发电厂）。有点难住了。” 6park.com
“We’re not going to build 100 gigawatts of new renewables in a few years. You’re kind of stuck,” he said.  6park.com
   
问题的复杂之处在于，企业不仅希望增加新的电力，还希望增加的是清洁电力。许多科技公司和公用事业公司已承诺大幅减少碳排放量。 6park.com
The complication is that companies don’t just want to add new power sources, but clean one, too. Many tech companies and utilities have made commitments to dramatically reduce the carbon emissions they produce. 6park.com
    
总部位于弗吉尼亚州里士满的公用事业公司Dominion Energy发现，弗吉尼亚州北部的数据中心建设带动了电力需求的急剧上升，该地区长期以来一直是大量此类设施的集中地。该公司预计将至少建设一座燃气发电厂来支持，现已制定了到2050年消除或抵消碳排放的目标。 6park.com
Dominion Energy, a utility company based in Richmond, Va., has seen a sharp uptick in electricity demand driven by a build-out of data centers in northern Virginia, which has long been home to a large concentration of such facilities. The company, which has set a goal to eliminate or offset its carbon emissions by 2050, expects to build at least one gas-fired power plant to support it. 6park.com
   
“到2050年，我们将实现净零排放。我们仍然坚信这一点，”首席执行官Robert Blue说。“但现在的需求增长使这一目标变得更加复杂。” 6park.com
“We’re going to be net-zero by 2050. We still absolutely believe that,” said CEO Robert Blue. “But the demand growth now makes that more complicated.” 6park.com
   
在经历了长期的电力需求停滞之后，公用事业公司正在以惊人的幅度调高预测值。根据咨询公司Grid Strategies的一份报告，美国电力需求增长的五年预测比一年前翻了一番。 6park.com
After a long period of stagnant demand for electricity, utilities are dialing up forecasts by astonishing amounts. The five-year projection of U.S. electricity demand growth has doubled from a year ago, according to a report from consulting firm Grid Strategies. 6park.com
    
AI驱动的电力需求激增正值其他因素汇聚到一起，给电网带来了新的压力。在《通胀削减法案》(Inflation Reduction Act)的新税收政策刺激下，美国各地正在兴建一批制造工厂，许多州正在努力将更多电力用于运输、供热和重工业。 6park.com
The surge in AI-driven power demand comes as other factors converge to create new strain on the grid. A wave of manufacturing plants are being developed across the U.S., spurred by new tax policies under the Inflation Reduction Act, and many states are working to use more electric power for transportation, heat and heavy industry. 6park.com
   
新数据中心的建设速度会快于新发电厂，目前已经出现了供应紧张的局面。据商业房地产服务公司世邦魏理仕(CBRE Group Inc., CBRE)称，由于电力供应延迟，数据中心的建设时间已经延长了2到6年。 6park.com
New data centers can be built faster than new power generation and there is already a supply crunch. Construction timelines for data centers have been extended by two to six years because of power-supply delays, according to commercial-real-estate services firm CBRE Group.
    6park.com
与此同时，拜登政府制定了到2035年实现美国电力部门零碳排放的目标。尽管联邦模型显示仍有可能实现此目标，但负责在白宫监督《通胀削减法案》实施的John Podesta告诉记者，迅速增加的AI需求给实现该目标带来新的挑战。 6park.com
Meanwhile, the Biden administration has set a goal to eliminate carbon emissions from the U.S. electricity sector by 2035. John Podesta, the president’s point person on implementing the Inflation Reduction Act, told reporters that burgeoning AI demands create new challenges in hitting that target, though federal models show it is still possible.  6park.com
   
他说：“我们正在加速开发这些清洁资源。” 6park.com
“We’re putting the accelerator down on developing those clean resources,” he said.


莫尼兹在会议上表示，公用事业公司将不得不更加倚重天然气、煤炭和核电厂以帮助满足激增的需求。

尽管如此，公用事业公司和科技公司仍在讨论是否需要更多化石燃料来支持需求。美国天然气巨头EQT的首席执行官Toby Rice说，建设数据中心的科技公司正在询问从EQT购买天然气事宜。Rice说，他在前述会议上收到了同样的两个问题： 你们的输送速度有多快？我们能获得多少天然气？ 6park.com
Still, utilities and tech companies are discussing the need for more fossil fuel to support demand. Toby Rice, CEO of giant U.S. natural-gas producer EQT, said tech firms building data centers are inquiring about buying gas from EQT. Rice said he got the same two questions at the conference: “How fast can you guys move? How much gas can we get?” 6park.com
   
Rice认为，科技公司需要可靠的电力，而由于天气变化无常，风能和太阳能等可再生能源并不总能提供可靠电力。大型核设施（美国目前只有一座在建）历来建造成本高昂，耗时长。 6park.com
According to Rice, tech companies need reliable power, which renewable sources such as wind and solar can’t always provide because of the vagaries of weather. And large-scale nuclear facilities, only one of which is under construction in the U.S., have historically been expensive and time-consuming to build. 6park.com
   
“科技公司不会为这些基础设施等上7到10年，”Rice接受采访时说。“那就只能用天然气了。” 6park.com
“Tech is not going to wait seven to 10 years to get this infrastructure built,” Rice said in an interview. “That leaves you with natural gas.”
    6park.com
Southern Company是一家为佐治亚州、密西西比州和阿拉巴马州客户提供服务的公用事业公司，该公司去年对佐治亚州的电力需求预测进行了大幅调整，主要是受数据中心建设和其他工业活动的推动。 6park.com
Southern Company, a utility company serving customers in Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama, last year made a significant revision to its power-demand forecast in Georgia, largely driven by the build-out of data centers and other industrial activity.  6park.com
   
该公司目前预计，到2030年冬季，需求将增长6600兆瓦，是之前预测的17倍。Southern已提议在亚特兰大西南部的一家发电厂新增三台燃气涡轮机。 6park.com
The company now expects 6,600 megawatts of demand growth through the winter of 2030, 17 times greater than the previous forecast. Southern has proposed adding three new gas turbines at a power plant southwest of Atlanta. 6park.com
   
“面对这种前所未有的需求，所有资源都必须参与其中，”首席执行官Chris Womack在接受采访时说。 6park.com
“With this unprecedented demand, all resources have to be in the mix,” CEO Chris Womack said in an interview. 6park.com
  
全球8000个数据中心中约有三分之一位于美国，但数据中心的建设是一个全球现象。据国际能源署(IEA)估计，到2026年，全球数据中心、AI和加密货币的耗电量将增加一倍。 6park.com
About a third of the world’s 8,000 data centers are in the U.S., but the build-out is a worldwide phenomenon. Globally, the IEA estimates that electricity consumption from data centers, AI and cryptocurrency could double by 2026. 6park.com
   
日本最大电力供应商JERA首席执行官Yukio Kani表示，日本也掀起了数据中心建设热潮，这将考验日本的电力资源。 6park.com
A data center build-out is also under way in Japan and will test that country’s power resources, said Yukio Kani, CEO of JERA, Japan’s largest power provider.  6park.com
    
Kani说：“这是一只非常饥饿的毛毛虫”。 6park.com
“It’s a very hungry caterpillar,” said Kani.