Taiwan’s Economic Growth Beats Expectations in Strong Start to Year


由于全球电子产品需求回升使高端芯片生产商受益，今年台湾经济在旺盛的出口提振下强劲开局。


堆放在台湾基隆港的海运集装箱。随着全球电子产品需求的回升，强劲的出口推动了台湾经济的发展。

由于全球电子产品需求回升使高端芯片生产商受益，今年台湾经济在旺盛的出口提振下强劲开局。 6park.com
Taiwan's economy got off to a strong start this year, boosted by strong exports as global demand for electronics picks up, benefiting the producer of high-end chips. 6park.com
 
周二初步数据显示，台湾第一季度GDP同比增长6.51%。相比之下，2023年第四季度增长率为4.93%，《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)通过调查获得的预期为增长6.0%。 6park.com
The island's gross domestic product expanded 6.51% in the first quarter from a year earlier, advance estimates showed Tuesday. That compared with the 4.93% expansion seen in the fourth quarter of 2023 and expectations for 6.0% growth compiled in a Wall Street Journal poll. 6park.com
 
台湾统计部门表示，GDP增长动力主要来自商品和服务实际出口以及实际私人最终消费。这也是2021年第二季度以来台湾经济最强劲的增长。 6park.com
Growth was driven by exports of real exports of goods and services, as well as real private final consumption, the statistics department said. The growth is the strongest since the second quarter of 2021. 6park.com
 
经济学家和分析师一直预测台湾经济将有强劲的表现，认为台湾是本轮科技上升周期和巨大的AI需求的最大受益者。台湾是全球最大的芯片代工企业台积电(TSMC)的所在地，也是全球先进半导体生产能力的重要基地。台积电的客户包括英伟达(Nvidia)和苹果公司(Apple)。 6park.com
Economists and analysts had been expecting a solid print from the island economy, seen as a top beneficiary of the technology cycle's upswing and huge appetite for artificial intelligence. Taiwan is home to the world's largest contract chip maker, TSMC which counts Nvidia and Apple among its clients, and the bulk of global advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity. 6park.com
 
强大的本地需求也被认为是支持台湾经济增长的一个因素。公告显示，农历新年期间，台湾居民的消费和旅游热情高涨。 6park.com
Robust domestic demand had also been tipped to underpin growth. Citizens have been actively spending and traveling during lunar new year holiday, the statement said. 6park.com
 
数据显示，经季节性因素调整后，台湾1-3月份GDP环比增长0.28%。 6park.com
On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP rose 0.28% in January-March from the previous quarter, the data showed. 6park.com
 
数据显示，由于对AI应用芯片和入境旅游服务的需求激增，第一季度商品和服务实际出口同比增长10.2%。 6park.com
The figures also showed a 10.2% on year increase in real exports of goods and services during the quarter from a year earlier, due to surging demand for chips that power AI applications and inbound travel services. 6park.com
 
分析师说，持续的高增长可能支持台湾央行的紧缩政策立场。为防范通胀风险，台湾央行在3月份出人意料地上调了利率，并预测经济增长将大幅跃升。 6park.com
Continued strong growth could back the case for the central bank's hawkish-leaning policy stance, analysts say. The central bank delivered a surprise rate hike in March to guard against risks to inflation, while also projecting a sharp jump in growth. 6park.com
 
台湾央行当时预测，在全球对台湾高科技产品需求反弹和强劲的本地消费的推动下，今年经济增幅将从2023年的1.31%上升到3.22%。 6park.com
The central bank forecast at the time that economic growth will rise to 3.22% this year from 1.31% in 2023, fueled by rebounding global demand for the island's high-tech products and strong consumption at home. 6park.com
 
星展(DBS)经济团队在最近的一份报告中说，明确的复苏迹象可能有助于台湾央行在2024年剩余时间内保持中性偏紧缩的立场。 6park.com
Clear indications of recovery could help keep the central bank in a neutral policy stance with a tightening bias for the rest of 2024, DBS's economics team said in a recent note. 6park.com
 
凯投宏观(Capital Economics)表示，鉴于AI相关产品需求旺盛，台湾未来一年经济增长有望保持强势。 6park.com
强劲的出口增长正在抵消投资疲软的影响，凯投宏观认为，随着企业扩大产能以满足不断增长的AI产品需求，投资活动也将很快回暖。 6park.com
凯投宏观预计台湾今年经济增幅将为5.5%，远高于市场平均预期。 6park.com
“由于经济增长料将保持强劲，围绕通胀的担忧依然挥之不去，台湾央行不太可能降息，”凯投宏观新兴亚洲经济学家Shivaan Tandon表示。台湾央行甚至有可能进一步提高政策利率。