通胀，美国股市跌入熊市区间，担心资产价格进一步下跌的机构投资者纷纷买入股票和ETF看跌期权进行对冲。 6park.com
2022年09月25日 19:41 英国《金融时报》埃里克•普拉特，尼古拉斯•梅高纽约报道
Investors are buying record amounts of insurance contracts to protect themselves from a sell-off that has already wiped trillions of dollars off the value of US stocks.
投资者正在买入创纪录数量的保险合约，以保护自己免受这轮已经抹去数万亿美元美国股票价值的抛售的影响。
Purchases of put option contracts on stocks and exchange traded funds have surged, with big money managers spending $34.3bn on the options in the four weeks to September 23, according to Options Clearing Corp data analysed by Sundial Capital Research. The total was the largest on record in data going back to 2009, and four times the average since the start of 2020.
Sundial Capital Research对期权清算公司(Options Clearing Corp)数据进行的分析显示，股票和交易所交易基金(ETF)看跌期权合约的购买量激增，大型基金管理公司在截至9月23日的四周期间在这类期权上支出343亿美元。这一总额是自2009年开始记录以来的最高值，而且四倍于自2020年初以来的平均水平。
Institutional investors have spent $9.6bn in the past week alone. The splurge underscores the extent to which big funds want to insulate themselves from a sell-off that has dragged on for nine months, and has been supercharged by central bankers across the globe aggressively raising interest rates to tame high inflation.
仅在过去一周，机构投资者就支出了96亿美元。这些大笔开销突显大型基金在多大程度上想要保护自己免受已持续九个月的抛售的打击。此举也受到全球各大央行大幅加息以抑制高通胀的推动。
“Investors have realised the [US] Federal Reserve is very policy constrained with inflation where it is and they can no longer count on it to manage the risk of asset price volatility, so they need to take more direct action themselves,” said Dave Jilek, chief investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisors.
“投资者已经意识到，在通胀这么高的情况下，美联储(Federal Reserve)在政策上受到高度制约，他们不能再指望美国央行来管理资产价格波动的风险，而是需要自己采取更多直接行动，”Gateway Investment Advisors首席投资策略师戴夫•吉莱克(Dave Jilek)表示。
Jason Goepfert, who leads research at Sundial, noted that when adjusting for growth in the US stock market over the past two decades, the volume of equity put option purchases was roughly equivalent to the levels reached during the financial crisis. By contrast demand for call options, which can pay out if stocks rally, has tailed off.
Sundial研究负责人杰森•戈普菲特(Jason Goepfert)指出，根据过去20年美国股市的发展进行调整后，股票看跌期权当前的购买量大致相当于金融危机期间的水平。相比之下，对看涨期权（在股市上涨的情况下获利）的需求已经减少。
While the sell-off has wiped more than 22 per cent off the benchmark S&P 500 stock index this year — pushing it into a bear market — the slide has been relatively controlled, lasting months, not weeks. That has frustrated many investors who hedged themselves with put options contracts or bet on a surge in the Cboe’s Vix volatility index but found the protection did not act as the intended shock absorber.
尽管此轮抛售已使美国基准股指——标普500指数(S&P 500)今年以来下跌逾22%，进入熊市区间，但跌势相对可控，持续数月而不是数周。这让许多投资者感到沮丧，因为他们用看跌期权合约或押注于芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)的波动率指数(VIX)飙升进行对冲，却发现这种保护没有起到预期的减震器作用。
Earlier this month the S&P 500 suffered its biggest sell-off in more than two years but the Vix failed to breach 30, a phenomenon never before registered, according to Greg Boutle, a strategist with BNP Paribas. Generally large drawdowns push the Vix well above that level, he added.
本月早些时候，标普500指数遭遇两年多来最大跌幅，但VIX指数并未升至30上方。据法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)策略师格雷格•布特尔(Greg Boutle)介绍，这是前所未有的现象。他补充说，通常而言，较大的下跌将把VIX推高至远高于这一关口的水平。
Over the past month money managers have instead turned to buying put contracts on individual stocks, betting that they can better safeguard portfolios if they hedge against large moves in companies like FedEx or Ford, which have slid dramatically after issuing profit warnings.
过去一个月，基金经理转而买入个股的看跌期权，其思路是：如果他们对冲了联邦快递(FedEx)或福特(Ford)等公司——其股价在发布盈利预警后大幅下滑——的大幅波动，他们可以更好地保护投资组合。
“You’ve seen this extreme dislocation. It’s very rare you see this dynamic where put premiums in single stocks are bid so much relative to the index,” said Brian Bost, the co-head of equity derivatives in the Americas at Barclays. “That’s a large structural shift that doesn’t happen every day.”
“你看到了这种极端的脱节。很少看到这种情况：个股的看跌期权存在高出指数这么多的溢价，”巴克莱(Barclays)美洲股票衍生品联席主管布赖恩•博斯特(Brian Bost)表示。“这是一个巨大的结构性转变，不是每天都发生的事情。”
Investors and strategists have argued that the slow slide in the major indices has in part been driven by the fact that investors had largely hedged themselves after declines earlier this year. Long-short equity hedge funds have also largely pared back their bets after a dismal start to the year, meaning many have not had to liquidate large positions.
投资者和策略师们辩称，主要股指缓慢下滑的部分原因是，在今年早些时候股市下跌后，投资者基本上都进行了对冲。经历了年初的惨淡开局后，多/空股票对冲基金也大幅缩减了押注，这意味着许多基金不必平掉较大的头寸。
As stocks dropped again on Friday and more than 2,600 companies hit new 52-week lows this week, Cantor Fitzgerald said its clients were taking profits on hedges and establishing new trades with lower strike prices as they put on fresh insurance.
上周五股市再次下跌，使2600多家公司的股票上周创下52周新低。Cantor Fitzgerald表示，其客户正在斩获对冲的利润，并在购买新保险时以较低的执行价格设定新的交易。
Strategists across Wall Street have cut year-end forecasts as they factor in tighter policy from the Fed and an economic slowdown that they warn will soon begin to eat into corporate profits. Goldman Sachs on Friday lowered its S&P 500 forecast, expecting a further decline in the benchmark as it scrapped its bet on a late-year rally.
华尔街策略师们已经下调了年终预测，计入美联储收紧政策以及经济放缓的影响。他们警告，经济放缓将很快开始侵蚀企业利润。高盛(Goldman Sachs)上周五下调了对标普500指数的预测，预计该基准股指将进一步下跌。该行放弃了对年底反弹的押注。
“The forward paths of inflation, economic growth, interest rates, earnings, and valuations are all in flux more than usual,” said David Kostin, a strategist at Goldman. “Based on our client discussions, a majority of equity investors have adopted the view that a hard landing scenario is inevitable.”
“通胀、经济增长、利率、企业盈利和估值的未来路径都比平时更不稳定，”高盛策略师戴维•科斯汀(David Kostin)表示。“根据我们与客户的讨论，大多数股票投资者接受了硬着陆不可避免的观点。”
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